--- title: "Circus case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Circus ($1,341.85) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.43% over 5,163 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/circus rendered: 2026-11-11T12:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Circus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/circus) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Circus A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/circus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/circus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/circus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/circus?window=all) Price · $1,341.85 · 1,917 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.43% · 5,163 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 528 openings · below min 7 days · 91.66% ±15.89 4,152 openings 30 days · 92.43% ±14.16 5,163 openings since tracking started · 92.43% ±14.16 5,163 openings 75.0% 139.0% 203.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/circus?window=24h) | 528 | 141.10% ±61.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/circus?window=7d) | 4,152 | 91.66% ±15.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/circus) | 5,163 | 92.43% ±14.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/circus?window=all) | 5,163 | 92.43% ±14.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $73.8K 105,434 coins 55.00x 2026-11-11 06:47 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $73.8K 105,434 coins 55.00x 2026-11-11 06:46 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) [Lobanjica](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Lobanjica) $1,342 1,917 coins $73.8K 105,434 coins 55.00x 2026-11-10 22:54 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $73.8K 105,434 coins 55.00x 2026-11-10 18:34 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $73.8K 105,434 coins 55.00x 2026-11-10 07:51 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $73.8K 105,434 coins 55.00x 2026-11-10 07:50 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $73.8K 105,434 coins 55.00x 2026-11-10 07:50 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $73.8K 105,434 coins 55.00x 2026-11-09 14:35 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $73.8K 105,434 coins 55.00x 2026-11-09 09:13 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $73.8K 105,434 coins 55.00x 2026-11-08 00:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=circus) [Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-virtus-pro-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $4,850 6,929 coins 3.61x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-holo-paris-2023) [bradbeloved](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/bradbeloved) $1,342 1,917 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC [Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC [Sticker | rain (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · Exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $1,342 1,917 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $73.8K (55.00x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.43 on average: an expected loss of $7.57 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt