--- title: "Citadel case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Citadel ($490.00) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 83.91% over 182 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/citadel rendered: 2026-11-12T06:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Citadel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/citadel) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Citadel A case on Rain.gg, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/citadel?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/citadel?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/citadel) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/citadel?window=all) Price · $490.00 · 700 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 83.91% · 182 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 9 openings · below min 7 days · 155 openings · below min 30 days · 182 openings · below min since tracking started · 182 openings · below min 5.5% 61.7% 118.0% **Small sample.** 182 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/citadel?window=24h) | 9 | 24.31% ±18.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/citadel?window=7d) | 155 | 87.17% ±30.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/citadel) | 182 | 83.91% ±26.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/citadel?window=all) | 182 | 83.91% ±26.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) [twitch.tv/MrBarnee](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/twitch.tv%2FMrBarnee) $490 700 coins $6,375 9,107 coins 13.01x 2026-11-05 13:31 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) Hidden $490 700 coins $4,490 6,414 coins 9.16x 2026-11-09 11:43 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) Hidden $490 700 coins $4,490 6,414 coins 9.16x 2026-11-08 22:41 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) Hidden $490 700 coins $4,490 6,414 coins 9.16x 2026-11-06 12:00 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $490 700 coins $3,021 4,316 coins 6.17x 2026-11-09 11:43 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $490 700 coins $2,585 3,692 coins 5.27x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $490 700 coins $2,585 3,692 coins 5.27x 2026-11-08 22:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Lobanjica](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Lobanjica) $490 700 coins $2,585 3,692 coins 5.27x 2026-11-08 22:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $490 700 coins $2,585 3,692 coins 5.27x 2026-11-08 09:24 UTC [Souvenir M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-factory-new) Hidden $490 700 coins $1,801 2,574 coins 3.68x 2026-11-09 11:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=citadel) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) Hidden $490 700 coins $118 168 coins 0.24x 2026-11-12 00:24 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) Hidden $490 700 coins $0.98 1.4 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 00:24 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) Hidden $490 700 coins $118 168 coins 0.24x 2026-11-12 00:24 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) Hidden $490 700 coins $0.98 1.4 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 00:24 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) Hidden $490 700 coins $0.98 1.4 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 00:24 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-factory-new) Hidden $490 700 coins $327 467 coins 0.67x 2026-11-12 00:24 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) Hidden $490 700 coins $0.98 1.4 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 00:24 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-factory-new) Hidden $490 700 coins $327 467 coins 0.67x 2026-11-12 00:24 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) [bradbeloved](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/bradbeloved) $490 700 coins $179 255 coins 0.36x 2026-11-12 00:24 UTC [StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-toy-soldier-well-worn) Hidden $490 700 coins $0.98 1.4 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $6,375 (13.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.91 on average: an expected loss of $16.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt