--- title: "Confusion case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Confusion ($1.68) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.32% over 23.6K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/confusion rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Confusion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/confusion) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Confusion A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/confusion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/confusion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/confusion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/confusion?window=all) Price · $1.68 · 2.4 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.32% · 23.6K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.22% ±18.56 3,124 openings 7 days · 91.47% ±6.80 20.4K openings 30 days · 92.32% ±6.39 23.6K openings since tracking started · 92.32% ±6.39 23.6K openings 74.0% 93.3% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/confusion?window=24h) | 3,124 | 93.22% ±18.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/confusion?window=7d) | 20.4K | 91.47% ±6.80 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/confusion) | 23.6K | 92.32% ±6.39 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/confusion?window=all) | 23.6K | 92.32% ±6.39 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [P250 | Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $208 298 coins 124.1x 2026-11-05 17:45 UTC [P250 | Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-modern-hunter-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $208 298 coins 124.1x 2026-11-03 10:55 UTC [PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-modern-hunter-factory-new) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $201 287 coins 119.7x 2026-11-04 20:08 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $161 230 coins 95.96x 2026-11-10 23:28 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $161 230 coins 95.96x 2026-11-10 15:57 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $161 230 coins 95.96x 2026-11-10 08:54 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $161 230 coins 95.96x 2026-11-09 19:33 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $161 230 coins 95.96x 2026-11-09 03:16 UTC [AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-factory-new) [:))))](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/%3A%29%29%29%29) $1.68 2.4 coins $161 230 coins 95.96x 2026-11-04 19:10 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $143 204 coins 84.92x 2026-11-10 21:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=confusion) [Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $0.43 0.61 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [AUG | Tom Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-field-tested) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-assault-factory-new) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $0.71 1.01 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Shred (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-shred-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $0.52 0.75 coins 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [AUG | Tom Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-field-tested) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-field-tested) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $1.58 2.25 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Poly Mag (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-poly-mag-field-tested) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-water-sigil-field-tested) [DepDom](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/DepDom) $1.68 2.4 coins $1.58 2.25 coins 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [AUG | Tom Cat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-field-tested) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-firestarter-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.68 2.4 coins $1.59 2.27 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $208 (124.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.32 on average: an expected loss of $7.68 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt