--- title: "Cozy Fire case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cozy Fire ($25.01) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 76.36% over 1,556 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cozy-fire rendered: 2026-11-11T18:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Cozy Fire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cozy-fire) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Cozy Fire A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cozy-fire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cozy-fire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cozy-fire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cozy-fire?window=all) Price · $25.01 · 35.73 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 76.36% · 1,556 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 108 openings · below min 7 days · 72.51% ±10.47 1,258 openings 30 days · 76.36% ±10.02 1,556 openings since tracking started · 76.36% ±10.02 1,556 openings 31.5% 69.8% 108.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cozy-fire?window=24h) | 108 | 69.55% ±37.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cozy-fire?window=7d) | 1,258 | 72.51% ±10.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cozy-fire) | 1,556 | 76.36% ±10.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cozy-fire?window=all) | 1,556 | 76.36% ±10.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-well-worn) Hidden $25.01 35.73 coins $534 763 coins 21.36x 2026-11-08 15:48 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-imminent-danger-well-worn) Hidden $25.01 35.73 coins $534 763 coins 21.36x 2026-11-04 23:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=cozy-fire) [Nova | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $25.01 35.73 coins $3.65 5.22 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $25.01 35.73 coins $54.44 77.77 coins 2.18x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [Nova | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $25.01 35.73 coins $3.65 5.22 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [FAMAS | CaliCamo (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-well-worn) Hidden $25.01 35.73 coins $2.32 3.32 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $25.01 35.73 coins $16.18 23.11 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [FAMAS | CaliCamo (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-well-worn) Hidden $25.01 35.73 coins $2.32 3.32 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.01 35.73 coins $146 208 coins 5.82x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [FAMAS | CaliCamo (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-calicamo-well-worn) Hidden $25.01 35.73 coins $2.32 3.32 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $25.01 35.73 coins $16.18 23.11 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-minimal-wear) Hidden $25.01 35.73 coins $383 546 coins 15.29x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $534 (21.36x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.36 on average: an expected loss of $23.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt