--- title: "Faded case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Faded ($247.16) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 102.91% over 96 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/faded rendered: 2026-11-12T10:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Faded](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/faded) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Faded A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/faded?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/faded?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/faded) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/faded?window=all) Price · $247.16 · 353 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 102.91% · 96 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 47 openings · below min 30 days · 96 openings · below min since tracking started · 96 openings · below min 68.0% 97.0% 126.0% **Small sample.** 96 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/faded?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/faded?window=7d) | 47 | 96.42% ±28.0 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/faded) | 96 | 102.91% ±22.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/faded?window=all) | 96 | 102.91% ±22.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [DameTime619](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/DameTime619) $247 353 coins $1,356 1,937 coins 5.49x 2026-11-04 23:57 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $247 353 coins $1,356 1,937 coins 5.49x 2026-11-04 14:59 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $247 353 coins $1,011 1,445 coins 4.09x 2026-11-07 16:34 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $247 353 coins $1,011 1,445 coins 4.09x 2026-11-07 16:34 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) [HEAVYISTHECROWN](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/HEAVYISTHECROWN) $247 353 coins $722 1,032 coins 2.92x 2026-11-09 21:21 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $247 353 coins $722 1,032 coins 2.92x 2026-11-04 23:57 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $247 353 coins $722 1,032 coins 2.92x 2026-11-04 14:59 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $247 353 coins $577 824 coins 2.33x 2026-11-05 00:10 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $247 353 coins $577 824 coins 2.33x 2026-11-04 22:05 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $247 353 coins $577 824 coins 2.33x 2026-11-04 14:59 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=faded) [★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $247 353 coins $330 471 coins 1.34x 2026-11-09 21:21 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $247 353 coins $41.40 59.14 coins 0.17x 2026-11-09 21:21 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $247 353 coins $440 629 coins 1.78x 2026-11-09 21:21 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) [HEAVYISTHECROWN](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/HEAVYISTHECROWN) $247 353 coins $722 1,032 coins 2.92x 2026-11-09 21:21 UTC [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $247 353 coins $76.43 109 coins 0.31x 2026-11-09 10:03 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $247 353 coins $215 307 coins 0.87x 2026-11-09 10:03 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $247 353 coins $440 629 coins 1.78x 2026-11-09 10:03 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) Hidden $247 353 coins $6.96 9.94 coins 0.03x 2026-11-09 10:03 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) Hidden $247 353 coins $236 337 coins 0.96x 2026-11-09 10:03 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-battle-scarred) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $247 353 coins $149 212 coins 0.60x 2026-11-09 10:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,356 (5.49x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 102.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $102.91 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt