--- title: "Fracture case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fracture ($3.79) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 83.95% over 12.7K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/fracture rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Fracture](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/fracture) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Fracture A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/fracture?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/fracture?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/fracture) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/fracture?window=all) Price · $3.79 · 5.42 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 83.95% · 12.7K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 987 openings · below min 7 days · 85.16% ±15.64 10.7K openings 30 days · 83.95% ±14.23 12.7K openings since tracking started · 83.95% ±14.23 12.7K openings 42.0% 93.8% 145.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/fracture?window=24h) | 987 | 93.69% ±51.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/fracture?window=7d) | 10.7K | 85.16% ±15.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/fracture) | 12.7K | 83.95% ±14.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/fracture?window=all) | 12.7K | 83.95% ±14.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $1,360 1,942 coins 358.3x 2026-11-09 08:05 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $1,360 1,942 coins 358.3x 2026-11-08 23:07 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $1,255 1,793 coins 330.8x 2026-11-08 23:01 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $856 1,223 coins 225.7x 2026-11-10 16:55 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $856 1,223 coins 225.7x 2026-11-02 22:18 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $739 1,056 coins 194.8x 2026-11-08 23:11 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $739 1,056 coins 194.8x 2026-11-08 21:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [PIZZaNazis](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/PIZZaNazis) $3.79 5.42 coins $739 1,056 coins 194.8x 2026-11-03 22:08 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $576 823 coins 151.9x 2026-11-10 09:44 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $572 817 coins 150.6x 2026-11-05 02:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=fracture) [SG 553 | Ol' Rusty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-factory-new) [pf](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/pf) $3.79 5.42 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [P250 | Cassette (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $0.28 0.4 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-factory-new) [pf](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/pf) $3.79 5.42 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-mainframe-001-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $1.09 1.55 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-freight-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $0.70 1 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-factory-new) [pf](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/pf) $3.79 5.42 coins $1.53 2.18 coins 0.40x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $20.85 29.78 coins 5.49x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC [StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-entombed-factory-new) Hidden $3.79 5.42 coins $17.69 25.27 coins 4.66x 2026-11-11 13:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,360 (358.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.95 on average: an expected loss of $16.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt