--- title: "Gelato case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Gelato ($2,945.70) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.66% over 140 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/gelato rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Gelato](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/gelato) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Gelato A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/gelato?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/gelato?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/gelato) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/gelato?window=all) Price · $2,945.70 · 4,208 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.66% · 140 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 30 openings · below min 7 days · 48 openings · below min 30 days · 140 openings · below min since tracking started · 140 openings · below min 53.0% 85.0% 117.0% **Small sample.** 140 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/gelato?window=24h) | 30 | 78.77% ±23.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/gelato?window=7d) | 48 | 70.33% ±16.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/gelato) | 140 | 88.66% ±27.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/gelato?window=all) | 140 | 88.66% ±27.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $54.7K 78,119 coins 18.56x 2026-11-03 22:10 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [erd](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/erd) $2,946 4,208 coins $13.3K 19,027 coins 4.52x 2026-11-03 22:10 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $6,027 8,611 coins 2.05x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $6,027 8,611 coins 2.05x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $6,027 8,611 coins 2.05x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $6,027 8,611 coins 2.05x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $6,027 8,611 coins 2.05x 2026-11-03 22:14 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $6,027 8,611 coins 2.05x 2026-11-03 22:13 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $6,027 8,611 coins 2.05x 2026-11-03 22:13 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $6,027 8,611 coins 2.05x 2026-11-03 22:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=gelato) [AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $966 1,380 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $5,032 7,189 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $2,328 3,325 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $414 591 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $970 1,386 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $1,795 2,564 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [AK-47 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $1,795 2,564 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) [Kick.com/xck97x | CODE : CK97](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Kick.com%2Fxck97x%20%7C%20CODE%20%3A%20CK97) $2,946 4,208 coins $966 1,380 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 14:27 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $6,027 8,611 coins 2.05x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $2,946 4,208 coins $5,032 7,189 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 14:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $54.7K (18.56x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.66 on average: an expected loss of $11.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt