--- title: "Geometric case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Geometric ($33.48) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.91% over 1,488 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/geometric rendered: 2026-11-11T22:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Geometric](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/geometric) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Geometric A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/geometric?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/geometric?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/geometric) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/geometric?window=all) Price · $33.48 · 47.83 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.91% · 1,488 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 193 openings · below min 7 days · 92.00% ±9.88 1,212 openings 30 days · 92.91% ±8.83 1,488 openings since tracking started · 92.91% ±8.83 1,488 openings 53.5% 78.0% 102.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/geometric?window=24h) | 193 | 72.30% ±18.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/geometric?window=7d) | 1,212 | 92.00% ±9.88 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/geometric) | 1,488 | 92.91% ±8.83 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/geometric?window=all) | 1,488 | 92.91% ±8.83 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $33.48 47.83 coins $764 1,091 coins 22.81x 2026-11-09 17:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $33.48 47.83 coins $764 1,091 coins 22.81x 2026-11-08 13:31 UTC [★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $33.48 47.83 coins $535 764 coins 15.98x 2026-11-03 20:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=geometric) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) Hidden $33.48 47.83 coins $8.50 12.14 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC [Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 47.83 coins $43.83 62.62 coins 1.31x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC [Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 47.83 coins $82.26 118 coins 2.46x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC [Glock-18 | Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-field-tested) Hidden $33.48 47.83 coins $16.17 23.1 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC [Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) Hidden $33.48 47.83 coins $82.26 118 coins 2.46x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) [SkibidiBoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/SkibidiBoy) $33.48 47.83 coins $8.50 12.14 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 22:34 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-block-18-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.48 47.83 coins $3.92 5.6 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 22:33 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-block-18-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.48 47.83 coins $3.92 5.6 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 22:33 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-block-18-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.48 47.83 coins $3.92 5.6 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 22:33 UTC [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) Hidden $33.48 47.83 coins $8.50 12.14 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 22:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $764 (22.81x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.91 on average: an expected loss of $7.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt