--- title: "Ghosted case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ghosted ($402.44) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 87.97% over 137 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ghosted rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Ghosted](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ghosted) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Ghosted A case on Rain.gg, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ghosted?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ghosted?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ghosted) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ghosted?window=all) Price · $402.44 · 575 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 87.97% · 137 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 137 openings · below min 30 days · 137 openings · below min since tracking started · 137 openings · below min 30.0% 111.3% 192.5% **Small sample.** 137 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ghosted?window=24h) | 18 | 111.24% ±80.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ghosted?window=7d) | 137 | 87.97% ±24.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ghosted) | 137 | 87.97% ±24.1 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ghosted?window=all) | 137 | 87.97% ±24.1 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $402 575 coins $2,723 3,890 coins 6.77x 2026-11-09 11:42 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $402 575 coins $2,723 3,890 coins 6.77x 2026-11-04 23:46 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $402 575 coins $2,176 3,108 coins 5.41x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $402 575 coins $1,858 2,654 coins 4.62x 2026-11-08 18:03 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) Hidden $402 575 coins $1,808 2,583 coins 4.49x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) Hidden $402 575 coins $1,808 2,583 coins 4.49x 2026-11-08 00:18 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) Hidden $402 575 coins $1,808 2,583 coins 4.49x 2026-11-06 11:46 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $402 575 coins $1,544 2,206 coins 3.84x 2026-11-05 01:10 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) [bradbeloved](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/bradbeloved) $402 575 coins $1,355 1,935 coins 3.37x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $402 575 coins $1,355 1,935 coins 3.37x 2026-11-09 11:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=ghosted) [P250 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $402 575 coins $127 181 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $402 575 coins $127 181 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) Hidden $402 575 coins $9.11 13.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) Hidden $402 575 coins $9.11 13.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [USP-S | Whiteout (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-well-worn) Hidden $402 575 coins $25.48 36.4 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) Hidden $402 575 coins $9.11 13.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) Hidden $402 575 coins $2,176 3,108 coins 5.41x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [P250 | Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) Hidden $402 575 coins $127 181 coins 0.32x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $402 575 coins $849 1,213 coins 2.11x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-factory-new) Hidden $402 575 coins $1,808 2,583 coins 4.49x 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,723 (6.77x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.97 on average: an expected loss of $12.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt