--- title: "Hail Mary case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Hail Mary ($285.26) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 93.95% over 248 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hail-mary rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Hail Mary](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hail-mary) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Hail Mary A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hail-mary?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hail-mary?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hail-mary) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hail-mary?window=all) Price · $285.26 · 408 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 93.95% · 248 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 196 openings · below min 30 days · 248 openings · below min since tracking started · 248 openings · below min 25.5% 69.2% 113.0% **Small sample.** 248 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hail-mary?window=24h) | 18 | 58.36% ±32.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hail-mary?window=7d) | 196 | 92.69% ±19.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hail-mary) | 248 | 93.95% ±17.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hail-mary?window=all) | 248 | 93.95% ±17.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $285 408 coins $2,666 3,809 coins 9.35x 2026-11-05 23:43 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Tivuhwrldlovesbbc](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Tivuhwrldlovesbbc) $285 408 coins $2,666 3,809 coins 9.35x 2026-11-04 22:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $285 408 coins $2,666 3,809 coins 9.35x 2026-11-04 22:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $285 408 coins $2,666 3,809 coins 9.35x 2026-11-03 20:33 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $285 408 coins $1,297 1,853 coins 4.55x 2026-11-10 04:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $285 408 coins $1,251 1,787 coins 4.38x 2026-11-04 00:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $285 408 coins $1,251 1,787 coins 4.38x 2026-11-03 22:37 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) [swerve](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/swerve) $285 408 coins $1,011 1,445 coins 3.54x 2026-11-10 04:54 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $285 408 coins $1,011 1,445 coins 3.54x 2026-11-05 23:43 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $285 408 coins $1,011 1,445 coins 3.54x 2026-11-05 23:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=hail-mary) [★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $285 408 coins $220 315 coins 0.77x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) Hidden $285 408 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) Hidden $285 408 coins $440 629 coins 1.54x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) Hidden $285 408 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) Hidden $285 408 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) Hidden $285 408 coins $154 220 coins 0.54x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $285 408 coins $220 315 coins 0.77x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) Hidden $285 408 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) Hidden $285 408 coins $704 1,006 coins 2.47x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $285 408 coins $220 315 coins 0.77x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,666 (9.35x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.95 on average: an expected loss of $6.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt