--- title: "Hardened case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Hardened ($87.86) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.83% over 459 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hardened rendered: 2026-11-12T03:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Hardened](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hardened) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Hardened A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hardened?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hardened?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hardened) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hardened?window=all) Price · $87.86 · 126 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.83% · 459 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 16 openings · below min 7 days · 344 openings · below min 30 days · 459 openings · below min since tracking started · 459 openings · below min 41.0% 81.0% 121.0% **Small sample.** 459 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hardened?window=24h) | 16 | 80.88% ±39.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hardened?window=7d) | 344 | 90.29% ±11.0 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hardened) | 459 | 88.83% ±9.81 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/hardened?window=all) | 459 | 88.83% ±9.81 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $87.86 126 coins $860 1,229 coins 9.79x 2026-11-08 15:26 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $87.86 126 coins $860 1,229 coins 9.79x 2026-11-03 13:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=hardened) [★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $87.86 126 coins $253 361 coins 2.88x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $87.86 126 coins $76.34 109 coins 0.87x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC [Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blue-gem-glitter) Hidden $87.86 126 coins $2.90 4.14 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [HEAVYISTHECROWN](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/HEAVYISTHECROWN) $87.86 126 coins $140 200 coins 1.60x 2026-11-11 22:04 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $87.86 126 coins $76.34 109 coins 0.87x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $87.86 126 coins $140 200 coins 1.60x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blue-gem-glitter) Hidden $87.86 126 coins $2.90 4.14 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $87.86 126 coins $8.83 12.61 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-blue-gem-glitter) Hidden $87.86 126 coins $2.90 4.14 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) [FybZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/FybZ) $87.86 126 coins $76.34 109 coins 0.87x 2026-11-11 14:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $860 (9.79x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.83 on average: an expected loss of $11.17 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt