--- title: "Kalashnikov case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Kalashnikov ($421.16) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 77.80% over 197 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/kalashnikov rendered: 2026-11-11T15:42Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Kalashnikov](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/kalashnikov) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Kalashnikov A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/kalashnikov?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/kalashnikov?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/kalashnikov) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/kalashnikov?window=all) Price · $421.16 · 602 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 77.80% · 197 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 135 openings · below min 30 days · 197 openings · below min since tracking started · 197 openings · below min 1.5% 53.5% 105.5% **Small sample.** 197 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/kalashnikov?window=24h) | 8 | 42.93% ±40.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/kalashnikov?window=7d) | 135 | 83.13% ±21.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/kalashnikov) | 197 | 77.80% ±17.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/kalashnikov?window=all) | 197 | 77.80% ±17.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) Hidden $421 602 coins $2,639 3,770 coins 6.27x 2026-11-03 22:58 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $421 602 coins $2,502 3,574 coins 5.94x 2026-11-09 00:13 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $421 602 coins $2,502 3,574 coins 5.94x 2026-11-08 09:23 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $421 602 coins $2,502 3,574 coins 5.94x 2026-11-03 22:58 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $421 602 coins $2,319 3,313 coins 5.51x 2026-11-08 09:24 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $421 602 coins $2,319 3,313 coins 5.51x 2026-11-07 23:34 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $421 602 coins $2,319 3,313 coins 5.51x 2026-11-06 11:59 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) Hidden $421 602 coins $2,319 3,313 coins 5.51x 2026-11-05 20:04 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) Hidden $421 602 coins $1,556 2,223 coins 3.70x 2026-11-06 11:59 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) [DameTime619](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/DameTime619) $421 602 coins $1,556 2,223 coins 3.70x 2026-11-05 20:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=kalashnikov) [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Inheritance (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) Hidden $421 602 coins $354 506 coins 0.84x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) [bradbeloved](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/bradbeloved) $421 602 coins $371 529 coins 0.88x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) Hidden $421 602 coins $70.80 101 coins 0.17x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) Hidden $421 602 coins $0.29 0.42 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $421 602 coins $650 928 coins 1.54x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) Hidden $421 602 coins $0.29 0.42 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) Hidden $421 602 coins $0.29 0.42 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [twitch.tv/MrBarnee](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/twitch.tv%2FMrBarnee) $421 602 coins $0.29 0.42 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) Hidden $421 602 coins $472 675 coins 1.12x 2026-11-09 00:13 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) Hidden $421 602 coins $70.80 101 coins 0.17x 2026-11-09 00:13 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,639 (6.27x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $77.80 on average: an expected loss of $22.20 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt