--- title: "Katsu case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Katsu ($8.37) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.16% over 3,234 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/katsu rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Katsu](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/katsu) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Katsu A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/katsu?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/katsu?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/katsu) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/katsu?window=all) Price · $8.37 · 11.96 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.16% · 3,234 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 304 openings · below min 7 days · 85.40% ±8.06 2,900 openings 30 days · 88.16% ±7.93 3,234 openings since tracking started · 88.16% ±7.93 3,234 openings 66.0% 91.3% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/katsu?window=24h) | 304 | 91.20% ±24.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/katsu?window=7d) | 2,900 | 85.40% ±8.06 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/katsu) | 3,234 | 88.16% ±7.93 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/katsu?window=all) | 3,234 | 88.16% ±7.93 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=katsu) [SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.37 11.96 coins $0.28 0.4 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-field-tested) [Nik4ou](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Nik4ou) $8.37 11.96 coins $28.00 40 coins 3.34x 2026-11-11 13:50 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) Hidden $8.37 11.96 coins $2.76 3.94 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-allure-minimal-wear) [Nik4ou](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Nik4ou) $8.37 11.96 coins $0.55 0.78 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.37 11.96 coins $0.28 0.4 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [Sticker | Akihabara Accept Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akihabara-accept-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $8.37 11.96 coins $6.19 8.85 coins 0.74x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [Sticker | Akihabara Accept Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-akihabara-accept-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $8.37 11.96 coins $6.19 8.85 coins 0.74x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.37 11.96 coins $0.28 0.4 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) Hidden $8.37 11.96 coins $2.81 4.01 coins 0.34x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.37 11.96 coins $0.28 0.4 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.16 on average: an expected loss of $11.84 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt