--- title: "Lit Up case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lit Up ($42.99) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 95.02% over 409 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/lit-up rendered: 2026-11-11T23:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Lit Up](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/lit-up) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Lit Up A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/lit-up?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/lit-up?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/lit-up) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/lit-up?window=all) Price · $42.99 · 61.42 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 95.02% · 409 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 26 openings · below min 7 days · 289 openings · below min 30 days · 409 openings · below min since tracking started · 409 openings · below min 58.0% 116.0% 174.0% **Small sample.** 409 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/lit-up?window=24h) | 26 | 115.93% ±57.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/lit-up?window=7d) | 289 | 91.15% ±19.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/lit-up) | 409 | 95.02% ±18.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/lit-up?window=all) | 409 | 95.02% ±18.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-factory-new) Hidden $42.99 61.42 coins $814 1,163 coins 18.93x 2026-11-04 12:15 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $42.99 61.42 coins $665 949 coins 15.46x 2026-11-04 13:30 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $42.99 61.42 coins $522 746 coins 12.14x 2026-11-05 09:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=lit-up) [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) Hidden $42.99 61.42 coins $58.41 83.44 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.99 61.42 coins $4.21 6.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC [★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $42.99 61.42 coins $220 314 coins 5.11x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC [Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.99 61.42 coins $87.48 125 coins 2.03x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.99 61.42 coins $4.21 6.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-minimal-wear) [ChubbyBunny](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/ChubbyBunny) $42.99 61.42 coins $4.21 6.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:35 UTC [Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.99 61.42 coins $18.39 26.27 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 03:29 UTC [USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) Hidden $42.99 61.42 coins $58.41 83.44 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 03:29 UTC [Souvenir MAG-7 | Core Breach (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) Hidden $42.99 61.42 coins $31.04 44.35 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 03:29 UTC [P2000 | Obsidian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.99 61.42 coins $4.21 6.01 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 03:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $814 (18.93x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.02 on average: an expected loss of $4.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt