--- title: "Marble case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Marble ($429.45) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 121.83% over 169 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/marble rendered: 2026-11-11T20:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Marble](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/marble) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Marble A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/marble?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/marble?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/marble) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/marble?window=all) Price · $429.45 · 614 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 121.83% · 169 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 151 openings · below min 30 days · 169 openings · below min since tracking started · 169 openings · below min -0.5% 310.3% 621.0% **Small sample.** 169 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/marble?window=24h) | 2 | 210.02% ±410.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/marble?window=7d) | 151 | 111.68% ±52.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/marble) | 169 | 121.83% ±50.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/marble?window=all) | 169 | 121.83% ±50.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [twitch.tv/MrBarnee](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/twitch.tv%2FMrBarnee) $429 614 coins $10.9K 15,637 coins 25.49x 2026-11-08 18:03 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [bradbeloved](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/bradbeloved) $429 614 coins $10.9K 15,637 coins 25.49x 2026-11-06 20:02 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $429 614 coins $5,807 8,295 coins 13.52x 2026-11-04 15:21 UTC [Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $429 614 coins $4,712 6,731 coins 10.97x 2026-11-06 11:59 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $429 614 coins $3,865 5,521 coins 9.00x 2026-11-07 00:11 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $429 614 coins $3,865 5,521 coins 9.00x 2026-11-06 11:59 UTC [Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) Hidden $429 614 coins $3,865 5,521 coins 9.00x 2026-11-04 00:41 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) [bradbeloved](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/bradbeloved) $429 614 coins $2,425 3,465 coins 5.65x 2026-11-07 06:38 UTC [AWP | The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) Hidden $429 614 coins $2,425 3,465 coins 5.65x 2026-11-06 11:47 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $429 614 coins $1,801 2,574 coins 4.19x 2026-11-11 10:21 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=marble) [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $429 614 coins $1,801 2,574 coins 4.19x 2026-11-11 10:21 UTC [Sticker | Gold Nova (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-nova-holo) [bradbeloved](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/bradbeloved) $429 614 coins $2.34 3.35 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:21 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) Hidden $429 614 coins $136 194 coins 0.32x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $429 614 coins $4.95 7.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [Sticker | autimatic (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-autimatic-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $429 614 coins $596 851 coins 1.39x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) Hidden $429 614 coins $28.83 41.18 coins 0.07x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [Sticker | Gold Nova (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-nova-holo) Hidden $429 614 coins $2.34 3.35 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) [twitch.tv/MrBarnee](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/twitch.tv%2FMrBarnee) $429 614 coins $136 194 coins 0.32x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) Hidden $429 614 coins $4.95 7.07 coins 0.01x 2026-11-10 17:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) Hidden $429 614 coins $940 1,342 coins 2.19x 2026-11-10 17:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $10.9K (25.49x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 121.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $121.83 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt