--- title: "Mechanical case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mechanical ($0.70) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 90.42% over 32.3K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mechanical rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Mechanical](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mechanical) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Mechanical A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mechanical?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mechanical?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mechanical) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mechanical?window=all) Price · $0.70 · 1 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 90.42% · 32.3K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.37% ±18.12 2,498 openings 7 days · 88.51% ±6.36 21.9K openings 30 days · 90.42% ±5.35 32.3K openings since tracking started · 90.42% ±5.35 32.3K openings 71.5% 90.3% 109.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mechanical?window=24h) | 2,498 | 90.37% ±18.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mechanical?window=7d) | 21.9K | 88.51% ±6.36 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mechanical) | 32.3K | 90.42% ±5.35 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mechanical?window=all) | 32.3K | 90.42% ±5.35 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $69.45 99.21 coins 99.21x 2026-11-10 21:57 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $69.45 99.21 coins 99.21x 2026-11-09 19:08 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $69.45 99.21 coins 99.21x 2026-11-09 18:17 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $69.45 99.21 coins 99.21x 2026-11-08 07:30 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $69.45 99.21 coins 99.21x 2026-11-07 19:43 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $69.45 99.21 coins 99.21x 2026-11-07 13:33 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $69.45 99.21 coins 99.21x 2026-11-07 12:19 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $69.45 99.21 coins 99.21x 2026-11-06 10:22 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $69.45 99.21 coins 99.21x 2026-11-04 20:35 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $69.45 99.21 coins 99.21x 2026-11-04 01:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=mechanical) [Sticker | rain (Glitter) | Paris 2023 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-glitter-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Sticker | rain (Glitter) | Paris 2023 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-glitter-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Sticker | rain (Glitter) | Paris 2023 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-glitter-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) [Butftingerer](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Butftingerer) $0.70 1 coins $1.69 2.41 coins 2.41x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $1.69 2.41 coins 2.41x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [Sticker | rain (Glitter) | Paris 2023 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-glitter-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Embargo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-embargo-well-worn) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $2.25 3.21 coins 3.21x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [Sticker | rain (Glitter) | Paris 2023 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-glitter-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [Sticker | rain (Glitter) | Paris 2023 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-glitter-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC [Sticker | rain (Glitter) | Paris 2023 sticker · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-glitter-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $69.45 (99.21x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.42 on average: an expected loss of $9.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt