--- title: "Mellow case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mellow ($0.16) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.27% over 16.2K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mellow rendered: 2026-11-11T13:47Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Mellow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mellow) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Mellow A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mellow?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mellow?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mellow) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mellow?window=all) Price · $0.16 · 0.23 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.27% · 16.2K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 87.75% ±5.19 1,640 openings 7 days · 86.08% ±1.90 12K openings 30 days · 86.27% ±1.64 16.2K openings since tracking started · 86.27% ±1.64 16.2K openings 82.0% 87.8% 93.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mellow?window=24h) | 1,640 | 87.75% ±5.19 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mellow?window=7d) | 12K | 86.08% ±1.90 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mellow) | 16.2K | 86.27% ±1.64 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mellow?window=all) | 16.2K | 86.27% ±1.64 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=mellow) [P90 | Ash Wood (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-well-worn) Hidden $0.16 0.23 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [MP7 | Sunbaked (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-field-tested) Hidden $0.16 0.23 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) Hidden $0.16 0.23 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-verdigris-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.16 0.23 coins $0.69 0.98 coins 4.26x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [MP7 | Sunbaked (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-field-tested) Hidden $0.16 0.23 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [MP7 | Sunbaked (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-field-tested) Hidden $0.16 0.23 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-light-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.16 0.23 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [P90 | Ash Wood (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-well-worn) [Hipster Kitty](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Hipster%20Kitty) $0.16 0.23 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [P90 | Ash Wood (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-ash-wood-well-worn) Hidden $0.16 0.23 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-light-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.16 0.23 coins $0.17 0.25 coins 1.09x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.27 on average: an expected loss of $13.73 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt