--- title: "Mental case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mental ($124.44) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 100.38% over 509 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mental rendered: 2026-11-11T14:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Mental](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mental) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Mental A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mental?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mental?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mental) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mental?window=all) Price · $124.44 · 178 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 100.38% · 509 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 72 openings · below min 7 days · 423 openings · below min 30 days · 509 openings · below min since tracking started · 509 openings · below min 66.5% 100.8% 135.0% **Small sample.** 509 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mental?window=24h) | 72 | 100.61% ±33.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mental?window=7d) | 423 | 98.11% ±18.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mental) | 509 | 100.38% ±16.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mental?window=all) | 509 | 100.38% ±16.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $124 178 coins $3,794 5,420 coins 30.49x 2026-11-05 03:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $124 178 coins $1,513 2,162 coins 12.16x 2026-11-05 08:48 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $124 178 coins $1,513 2,162 coins 12.16x 2026-11-03 15:24 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $124 178 coins $1,065 1,522 coins 8.56x 2026-11-10 15:50 UTC [★ Karambit | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $124 178 coins $718 1,025 coins 5.77x 2026-11-05 20:12 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $124 178 coins $636 909 coins 5.11x 2026-11-10 15:40 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $124 178 coins $636 909 coins 5.11x 2026-11-10 15:37 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $124 178 coins $636 909 coins 5.11x 2026-11-10 15:37 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $124 178 coins $636 909 coins 5.11x 2026-11-09 00:06 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $124 178 coins $636 909 coins 5.11x 2026-11-09 00:06 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=mental) [Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $124 178 coins $54.61 78.02 coins 0.44x 2026-11-10 20:54 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) Hidden $124 178 coins $0.40 0.57 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:54 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) Hidden $124 178 coins $0.40 0.57 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:54 UTC [P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) Hidden $124 178 coins $36.40 52 coins 0.29x 2026-11-10 20:54 UTC [P90 | Death by Kitty (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-field-tested) Hidden $124 178 coins $36.40 52 coins 0.29x 2026-11-10 20:54 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) [twitch.tv/MrBarnee](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/twitch.tv%2FMrBarnee) $124 178 coins $80.32 115 coins 0.65x 2026-11-10 20:54 UTC [M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) Hidden $124 178 coins $80.32 115 coins 0.65x 2026-11-10 20:52 UTC [MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-minimal-wear) Hidden $124 178 coins $282 403 coins 2.27x 2026-11-10 20:52 UTC [R8 Revolver | Crazy 8 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-field-tested) Hidden $124 178 coins $0.40 0.57 coins 0.00x 2026-11-10 20:52 UTC [Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $124 178 coins $218 311 coins 1.75x 2026-11-10 20:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $3,794 (30.49x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 100.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $100.38 on average: an expected loss of $0.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt