--- title: "Mercy case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mercy ($58.32) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 91.96% over 768 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mercy rendered: 2026-11-11T20:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Mercy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mercy) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Mercy A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mercy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mercy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mercy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mercy?window=all) Price · $58.32 · 83.31 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 91.96% · 768 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 130 openings · below min 7 days · 601 openings · below min 30 days · 768 openings · below min since tracking started · 768 openings · below min 77.5% 127.3% 177.0% **Small sample.** 768 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mercy?window=24h) | 130 | 128.66% ±47.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mercy?window=7d) | 601 | 95.41% ±15.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mercy) | 768 | 91.96% ±13.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/mercy?window=all) | 768 | 91.96% ±13.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $744 1,063 coins 12.76x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $744 1,063 coins 12.76x 2026-11-11 19:06 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $744 1,063 coins 12.76x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $744 1,063 coins 12.76x 2026-11-11 08:27 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $744 1,063 coins 12.76x 2026-11-11 04:13 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $744 1,063 coins 12.76x 2026-11-07 04:39 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $744 1,063 coins 12.76x 2026-11-05 02:04 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $744 1,063 coins 12.76x 2026-11-04 18:46 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $744 1,063 coins 12.76x 2026-11-03 10:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $561 801 coins 9.61x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=mercy) [Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $4.41 6.3 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [MP9 | Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $3.04 4.35 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $10.32 14.74 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $10.32 14.74 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $10.32 14.74 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-well-worn) [mountain](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/mountain) $58.32 83.31 coins $41.33 59.05 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-well-worn) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $41.33 59.05 coins 0.71x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [MP9 | Mount Fuji (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-field-tested) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $3.04 4.35 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Freehand (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-freehand-minimal-wear) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $118 169 coins 2.03x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $58.32 83.31 coins $19.19 27.42 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $744 (12.76x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.96 on average: an expected loss of $8.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt