--- title: "Metal Monkey case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Metal Monkey ($35.17) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 94.89% over 3,318 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/metal-monkey rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Metal Monkey](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/metal-monkey) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Metal Monkey A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/metal-monkey?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/metal-monkey?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/metal-monkey) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/metal-monkey?window=all) Price · $35.17 · 50.24 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 94.89% · 3,318 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 371 openings · below min 7 days · 100.19% ±15.54 2,837 openings 30 days · 94.89% ±13.85 3,318 openings since tracking started · 94.89% ±13.85 3,318 openings 68.0% 122.0% 176.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/metal-monkey?window=24h) | 371 | 122.12% ±53.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/metal-monkey?window=7d) | 2,837 | 100.19% ±15.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/metal-monkey) | 3,318 | 94.89% ±13.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/metal-monkey?window=all) | 3,318 | 94.89% ±13.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1,874 2,677 coins 53.28x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [R.Flashbangoneshotdeaglekill](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/R.Flashbangoneshotdeaglekill) $35.17 50.24 coins $1,874 2,677 coins 53.28x 2026-11-04 19:56 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1,874 2,677 coins 53.28x 2026-11-04 16:50 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1,498 2,140 coins 42.59x 2026-11-11 08:31 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1,498 2,140 coins 42.59x 2026-11-02 23:26 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1,206 1,723 coins 34.30x 2026-11-11 08:26 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) [Sunny23415](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Sunny23415) $35.17 50.24 coins $1,206 1,723 coins 34.30x 2026-11-11 08:16 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1,206 1,723 coins 34.30x 2026-11-10 07:53 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1,206 1,723 coins 34.30x 2026-11-08 06:17 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1,206 1,723 coins 34.30x 2026-11-06 03:22 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=metal-monkey) [Souvenir UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-factory-new) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $56.49 80.7 coins 1.61x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $42.49 60.7 coins 1.21x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) [Master Splinter](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Master%20Splinter) $35.17 50.24 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $17.01 24.3 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-fade-minimal-wear) [nightshift](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/nightshift) $35.17 50.24 coins $17.01 24.3 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC [Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.17 50.24 coins $1.17 1.67 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,874 (53.28x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.89 on average: an expected loss of $5.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt