--- title: "Nightmare case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nightmare ($47.80) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 95.37% over 9,261 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/nightmare rendered: 2026-11-11T12:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Nightmare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/nightmare) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Nightmare A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/nightmare?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/nightmare?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/nightmare) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/nightmare?window=all) Price · $47.80 · 68.28 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 95.37% · 9,261 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.97% ±23.56 1,355 openings 7 days · 97.15% ±10.59 7,788 openings 30 days · 95.37% ±9.48 9,261 openings since tracking started · 95.37% ±9.48 9,261 openings 69.0% 93.0% 117.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/nightmare?window=24h) | 1,355 | 92.97% ±23.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/nightmare?window=7d) | 7,788 | 97.15% ±10.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/nightmare) | 9,261 | 95.37% ±9.48 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/nightmare?window=all) | 9,261 | 95.37% ±9.48 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $5,944 8,491 coins 124.4x 2026-11-08 16:06 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $4,318 6,169 coins 90.35x 2026-11-09 20:51 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $3,614 5,163 coins 75.62x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $3,614 5,163 coins 75.62x 2026-11-08 06:24 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $3,614 5,163 coins 75.62x 2026-11-07 13:14 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) [ROBO VERS](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/ROBO%20VERS) $47.80 68.28 coins $3,614 5,163 coins 75.62x 2026-11-04 13:21 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $3,049 4,356 coins 63.79x 2026-11-09 20:43 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $3,049 4,356 coins 63.79x 2026-11-09 00:21 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $3,049 4,356 coins 63.79x 2026-11-03 19:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $1,850 2,643 coins 38.71x 2026-11-09 21:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=nightmare) [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $0.96 1.37 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $0.96 1.37 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $161 230 coins 3.37x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $0.96 1.37 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $0.96 1.37 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) [rose-2fdbca](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/rose-2fdbca) $47.80 68.28 coins $0.96 1.37 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $0.96 1.37 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $0.96 1.37 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $0.96 1.37 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC [★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $47.80 68.28 coins $768 1,098 coins 16.08x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $5,944 (124.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.37 on average: an expected loss of $4.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt