--- title: "Ninja case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ninja ($28.97) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 77.10% over 1,369 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ninja rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Ninja](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ninja) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Ninja A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ninja?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ninja?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ninja) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ninja?window=all) Price · $28.97 · 41.39 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 77.10% · 1,369 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 148 openings · below min 7 days · 78.71% ±13.57 1,137 openings 30 days · 77.10% ±11.92 1,369 openings since tracking started · 77.10% ±11.92 1,369 openings 39.0% 79.3% 119.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ninja?window=24h) | 148 | 79.35% ±39.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ninja?window=7d) | 1,137 | 78.71% ±13.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ninja) | 1,369 | 77.10% ±11.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/ninja?window=all) | 1,369 | 77.10% ±11.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-field-tested) Hidden $28.97 41.39 coins $511 730 coins 17.63x 2026-11-08 04:35 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-field-tested) Hidden $28.97 41.39 coins $511 730 coins 17.63x 2026-11-07 12:22 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-field-tested) Hidden $28.97 41.39 coins $511 730 coins 17.63x 2026-11-06 05:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=ninja) [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-field-tested) Hidden $28.97 41.39 coins $0.75 1.07 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-field-tested) Hidden $28.97 41.39 coins $0.75 1.07 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.97 41.39 coins $5.05 7.21 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $28.97 41.39 coins $428 611 coins 14.76x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.97 41.39 coins $5.05 7.21 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) Hidden $28.97 41.39 coins $0.85 1.21 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [R8 Revolver | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-minimal-wear) Hidden $28.97 41.39 coins $0.63 0.9 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [R8 Revolver | Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-night-minimal-wear) [ROBO VERS](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/ROBO%20VERS) $28.97 41.39 coins $0.63 0.9 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [StatTrak™ SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-phantom-field-tested) Hidden $28.97 41.39 coins $0.75 1.07 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-carbon-fiber-factory-new) Hidden $28.97 41.39 coins $0.85 1.21 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $511 (17.63x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 77.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $77.10 on average: an expected loss of $22.90 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt