--- title: "Octo case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Octo ($62.22) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 97.93% over 1,634 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/octo rendered: 2026-11-11T13:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Octo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/octo) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Octo A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/octo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/octo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/octo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/octo?window=all) Price · $62.22 · 88.88 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 97.93% · 1,634 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 234 openings · below min 7 days · 103.25% ±18.77 1,429 openings 30 days · 97.93% ±16.76 1,634 openings since tracking started · 97.93% ±16.76 1,634 openings 80.5% 141.5% 202.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/octo?window=24h) | 234 | 142.84% ±58.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/octo?window=7d) | 1,429 | 103.25% ±18.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/octo) | 1,634 | 97.93% ±16.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/octo?window=all) | 1,634 | 97.93% ±16.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $2,084 2,977 coins 33.50x 2026-11-10 20:26 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $2,084 2,977 coins 33.50x 2026-11-09 21:32 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $2,084 2,977 coins 33.50x 2026-11-08 00:45 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $2,084 2,977 coins 33.50x 2026-11-07 17:33 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $1,815 2,592 coins 29.17x 2026-11-10 20:42 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $1,815 2,592 coins 29.17x 2026-11-10 20:25 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $1,815 2,592 coins 29.17x 2026-11-09 11:25 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $1,815 2,592 coins 29.17x 2026-11-07 17:21 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Espião](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Espi%C3%A3o) $62.22 88.88 coins $1,815 2,592 coins 29.17x 2026-11-06 15:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $1,502 2,146 coins 24.14x 2026-11-10 20:26 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=octo) [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-well-worn) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $2.10 3 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-well-worn) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-field-tested) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $5.66 8.08 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-well-worn) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $106 152 coins 1.71x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-well-worn) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-well-worn) [ROBO VERS](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/ROBO%20VERS) $62.22 88.88 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC [Desert Eagle | Starcade (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-starcade-minimal-wear) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $62.96 89.95 coins 1.01x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-well-worn) Hidden $62.22 88.88 coins $0.27 0.39 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,084 (33.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 97.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $97.93 on average: an expected loss of $2.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt