--- title: "Prickly case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Prickly ($30.42) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 85.01% over 1,354 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/prickly rendered: 2026-11-11T14:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Prickly](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/prickly) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Prickly A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/prickly?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/prickly?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/prickly) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/prickly?window=all) Price · $30.42 · 43.46 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 85.01% · 1,354 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 107 openings · below min 7 days · 84.77% ±15.48 1,205 openings 30 days · 85.01% ±14.46 1,354 openings since tracking started · 85.01% ±14.46 1,354 openings 28.0% 74.8% 121.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/prickly?window=24h) | 107 | 74.95% ±46.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/prickly?window=7d) | 1,205 | 84.77% ±15.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/prickly) | 1,354 | 85.01% ±14.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/prickly?window=all) | 1,354 | 85.01% ±14.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $861 1,231 coins 28.31x 2026-11-06 03:19 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $861 1,231 coins 28.31x 2026-11-04 23:56 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $773 1,105 coins 25.42x 2026-11-07 17:24 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $773 1,105 coins 25.42x 2026-11-04 23:48 UTC [Gamma Doppler Emerald other · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-doppler-emerald) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $677 968 coins 22.27x 2026-11-04 23:39 UTC [Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $545 778 coins 17.90x 2026-11-11 06:11 UTC [Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $545 778 coins 17.90x 2026-11-09 15:29 UTC [Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $545 778 coins 17.90x 2026-11-09 01:31 UTC [Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $545 778 coins 17.90x 2026-11-04 23:39 UTC [Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $545 778 coins 17.90x 2026-11-04 16:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=prickly) [MP7 | Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-factory-new) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $5.28 7.54 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC [MP7 | Powercore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-factory-new) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $5.28 7.54 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC [PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-well-worn) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $3.25 4.64 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $467 667 coins 15.34x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC [Sticker | On An Eco (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-on-an-eco-foil) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $2.25 3.22 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) [Sunny23415](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Sunny23415) $30.42 43.46 coins $68.74 98.2 coins 2.26x 2026-11-11 11:11 UTC [MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-well-worn) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $9.18 13.12 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 06:14 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | OMG (Jungle Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-omg-jungle-green) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $0.92 1.31 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 06:14 UTC [Dual Berettas | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $37.90 54.15 coins 1.25x 2026-11-11 06:14 UTC [MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-well-worn) Hidden $30.42 43.46 coins $9.18 13.12 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 06:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $861 (28.31x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.01 on average: an expected loss of $14.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt