--- title: "Primitive case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Primitive ($1,219.44) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 48.90% over 40 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/primitive rendered: 2026-11-12T10:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Primitive](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/primitive) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Primitive A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/primitive?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/primitive?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/primitive) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/primitive?window=all) Price · $1,219.44 · 1,742 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 48.90% · 40 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 40 openings · below min since tracking started · 40 openings · below min 3.5% 38.3% 73.0% **Small sample.** 40 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/primitive?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/primitive?window=7d) | 8 | 16.24% ±12.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/primitive) | 40 | 48.90% ±23.6 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/primitive?window=all) | 40 | 48.90% ±23.6 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Souvenir M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $4,800 6,857 coins 3.94x 2026-11-03 23:41 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $2,674 3,820 coins 2.19x 2026-11-03 23:19 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $1,735 2,478 coins 1.42x 2026-11-03 23:41 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $1,735 2,478 coins 1.42x 2026-11-03 23:34 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $1,426 2,037 coins 1.17x 2026-11-03 23:34 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $1,426 2,037 coins 1.17x 2026-11-03 23:26 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $1,426 2,037 coins 1.17x 2026-11-03 23:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $1,083 1,548 coins 0.89x 2026-11-03 23:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $1,083 1,548 coins 0.89x 2026-11-03 23:19 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $850 1,215 coins 0.70x 2026-11-03 23:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=primitive) [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $70.62 101 coins 0.06x 2026-11-09 11:39 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $116 166 coins 0.10x 2026-11-09 11:39 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $70.62 101 coins 0.06x 2026-11-09 11:39 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) [w1seman](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/w1seman) $1,219 1,742 coins $645 921 coins 0.53x 2026-11-09 11:39 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $70.62 101 coins 0.06x 2026-11-09 11:38 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $425 607 coins 0.35x 2026-11-09 11:38 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) Hidden $1,219 1,742 coins $70.62 101 coins 0.06x 2026-11-09 11:38 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-jaguar-field-tested) [w1seman](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/w1seman) $1,219 1,742 coins $116 166 coins 0.10x 2026-11-09 11:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $4,800 (3.94x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 48.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $48.90 on average: an expected loss of $51.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt