--- title: "Rare case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rare ($1.03) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.13% over 79.6K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rare rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Rare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rare) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Rare A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rare?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rare?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rare) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rare?window=all) Price · $1.03 · 1.47 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.13% · 79.6K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.92% ±9.89 7,922 openings 7 days · 91.73% ±3.62 65K openings 30 days · 92.13% ±3.34 79.6K openings since tracking started · 92.13% ±3.34 79.6K openings 76.5% 87.0% 97.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rare?window=24h) | 7,922 | 86.92% ±9.89 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rare?window=7d) | 65K | 91.73% ±3.62 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rare) | 79.6K | 92.13% ±3.34 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rare?window=all) | 79.6K | 92.13% ±3.34 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $140 200 coins 136.1x 2026-11-10 03:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $140 200 coins 136.1x 2026-11-10 02:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $140 200 coins 136.1x 2026-11-09 01:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $140 200 coins 136.1x 2026-11-08 04:38 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $140 200 coins 136.1x 2026-11-08 00:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $140 200 coins 136.1x 2026-11-05 13:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $140 200 coins 136.1x 2026-11-04 11:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [PumBa](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/PumBa) $1.03 1.47 coins $140 200 coins 136.1x 2026-11-03 21:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $140 200 coins 136.1x 2026-11-03 21:43 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-slaughter-field-tested) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $140 200 coins 136.1x 2026-11-03 21:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=rare) [Sealed Graffiti | Piggles (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-piggles-blood-red) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Piggles (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-piggles-blood-red) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Piggles (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-piggles-blood-red) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Piggles (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-piggles-blood-red) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Piggles (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-piggles-blood-red) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Piggles (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-piggles-blood-red) [gamerhealer](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/gamerhealer) $1.03 1.47 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:04 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Check Engine (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-check-engine-well-worn) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $7.36 10.52 coins 7.16x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Piggles (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-piggles-blood-red) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Piggles (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-piggles-blood-red) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Piggles (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-piggles-blood-red) Hidden $1.03 1.47 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $140 (136.1x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.13 on average: an expected loss of $7.87 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt