--- title: "Reflection case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Reflection ($33.98) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.95% over 10.3K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/reflection rendered: 2026-11-11T21:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Reflection](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/reflection) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Reflection A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/reflection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/reflection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/reflection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/reflection?window=all) Price · $33.98 · 48.55 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.95% · 10.3K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 772 openings · below min 7 days · 90.26% ±12.28 8,198 openings 30 days · 88.95% ±10.80 10.3K openings since tracking started · 88.95% ±10.80 10.3K openings 49.0% 77.0% 105.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/reflection?window=24h) | 772 | 77.01% ±27.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/reflection?window=7d) | 8,198 | 90.26% ±12.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/reflection) | 10.3K | 88.95% ±10.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/reflection?window=all) | 10.3K | 88.95% ±10.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $5,155 7,364 coins 151.7x 2026-11-09 14:35 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $5,155 7,364 coins 151.7x 2026-11-08 00:18 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $4,388 6,269 coins 129.1x 2026-11-10 08:05 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $3,960 5,658 coins 116.5x 2026-11-09 12:39 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $3,960 5,658 coins 116.5x 2026-11-09 09:44 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $3,960 5,658 coins 116.5x 2026-11-07 12:19 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $3,960 5,658 coins 116.5x 2026-11-04 23:46 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $3,587 5,125 coins 105.6x 2026-11-10 19:30 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $3,587 5,125 coins 105.6x 2026-11-04 15:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $2,675 3,821 coins 78.70x 2026-11-10 20:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=reflection) [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $2.29 3.27 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $4.37 6.24 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $4.37 6.24 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $2.29 3.27 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $2.29 3.27 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) [OHNEEHRE](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/OHNEEHRE) $33.98 48.55 coins $4.37 6.24 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $4.37 6.24 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $2.29 3.27 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-rocket-pop-minimal-wear) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $4.37 6.24 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC [G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-azure-zebra-factory-new) Hidden $33.98 48.55 coins $2.29 3.27 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $5,155 (151.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.95 on average: an expected loss of $11.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt