--- title: "Rug case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Rug ($11.45) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.14% over 912 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rug rendered: 2026-11-12T06:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Rug](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rug) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Rug A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rug?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rug?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rug) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rug?window=all) Price · $11.45 · 16.35 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.14% · 912 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 64 openings · below min 7 days · 739 openings · below min 30 days · 912 openings · below min since tracking started · 912 openings · below min 41.0% 73.0% 105.0% **Small sample.** 912 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rug?window=24h) | 64 | 72.96% ±31.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rug?window=7d) | 739 | 90.65% ±9.80 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rug) | 912 | 88.14% ±8.70 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/rug?window=all) | 912 | 88.14% ±8.70 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=rug) [Negev | dev\_texture (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-factory-new) Hidden $11.45 16.35 coins $1.41 2.01 coins 0.12x 2026-11-12 04:59 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-brother-factory-new) Hidden $11.45 16.35 coins $3.53 5.05 coins 0.31x 2026-11-12 04:59 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Question Mark (Dust Brown) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-question-mark-dust-brown) Hidden $11.45 16.35 coins $0.21 0.3 coins 0.02x 2026-11-12 04:59 UTC [StatTrak™ P250 | Red Rock (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-red-rock-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.45 16.35 coins $11.20 16 coins 0.98x 2026-11-12 04:59 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Turbine (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.45 16.35 coins $8.43 12.04 coins 0.74x 2026-11-12 04:59 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-brother-factory-new) Hidden $11.45 16.35 coins $3.53 5.05 coins 0.31x 2026-11-12 04:59 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Question Mark (Dust Brown) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-question-mark-dust-brown) Hidden $11.45 16.35 coins $0.21 0.3 coins 0.02x 2026-11-12 04:59 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Turbine (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.45 16.35 coins $8.43 12.04 coins 0.74x 2026-11-12 04:59 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Backstab (Dust Brown) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-backstab-dust-brown) Hidden $11.45 16.35 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 04:59 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-brother-factory-new) Hidden $11.45 16.35 coins $3.53 5.05 coins 0.31x 2026-11-12 04:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.14 on average: an expected loss of $11.86 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt