--- title: "Sahara case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sahara ($37.25) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 89.06% over 573 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sahara rendered: 2026-11-11T16:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Sahara](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sahara) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Sahara A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sahara?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sahara?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sahara) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sahara?window=all) Price · $37.25 · 53.21 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 89.06% · 573 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 24 openings · below min 7 days · 496 openings · below min 30 days · 573 openings · below min since tracking started · 573 openings · below min 47.0% 84.5% 122.0% **Small sample.** 573 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sahara?window=24h) | 24 | 84.60% ±36.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sahara?window=7d) | 496 | 92.18% ±8.32 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sahara) | 573 | 89.06% ±7.71 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sahara?window=all) | 573 | 89.06% ±7.71 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=sahara) [Souvenir PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $37.25 53.21 coins $61.87 88.38 coins 1.66x 2026-11-11 09:23 UTC [SSG 08 | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $37.25 53.21 coins $108 155 coins 2.91x 2026-11-11 09:23 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $37.25 53.21 coins $42.18 60.25 coins 1.13x 2026-11-11 09:23 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) Hidden $37.25 53.21 coins $5.40 7.71 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 09:23 UTC [Souvenir FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-well-worn) Hidden $37.25 53.21 coins $41.14 58.77 coins 1.10x 2026-11-11 09:23 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Desert Warfare (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-desert-warfare-battle-scarred) [beefer](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/beefer) $37.25 53.21 coins $3.57 5.1 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 09:23 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $37.25 53.21 coins $42.18 60.25 coins 1.13x 2026-11-11 09:22 UTC [G3SG1 | Desert Storm (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-desert-storm-factory-new) Hidden $37.25 53.21 coins $0.05 0.07 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:22 UTC [AUG | Sand Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-well-worn) Hidden $37.25 53.21 coins $99.93 143 coins 2.68x 2026-11-11 09:22 UTC [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) Hidden $37.25 53.21 coins $5.40 7.71 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 09:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.06 on average: an expected loss of $10.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt