--- title: "Smooth Seas case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Smooth Seas ($38.63) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 81.98% over 386 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/smooth-seas rendered: 2026-11-12T15:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Smooth Seas](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/smooth-seas) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Smooth Seas A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/smooth-seas?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/smooth-seas?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/smooth-seas) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/smooth-seas?window=all) Price · $38.63 · 55.18 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 81.98% · 386 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 280 openings · below min 30 days · 386 openings · below min since tracking started · 386 openings · below min 23.5% 86.5% 149.5% **Small sample.** 386 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/smooth-seas?window=24h) | 14 | 86.56% ±62.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/smooth-seas?window=7d) | 280 | 76.14% ±12.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/smooth-seas) | 386 | 81.98% ±12.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/smooth-seas?window=all) | 386 | 81.98% ±12.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $38.63 55.18 coins $545 779 coins 14.12x 2026-11-03 16:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=smooth-seas) [M249 | Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) Hidden $38.63 55.18 coins $14.98 21.4 coins 0.39x 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) Hidden $38.63 55.18 coins $8.44 12.05 coins 0.22x 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) Hidden $38.63 55.18 coins $8.44 12.05 coins 0.22x 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) Hidden $38.63 55.18 coins $8.44 12.05 coins 0.22x 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) Hidden $38.63 55.18 coins $178 254 coins 4.60x 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) Hidden $38.63 55.18 coins $8.44 12.05 coins 0.22x 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) Hidden $38.63 55.18 coins $8.44 12.05 coins 0.22x 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC [Souvenir Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) [MeroBayBee](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/MeroBayBee) $38.63 55.18 coins $18.27 26.1 coins 0.47x 2026-11-12 11:14 UTC [Souvenir Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) Hidden $38.63 55.18 coins $18.27 26.1 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 19:17 UTC [USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $38.63 55.18 coins $64.61 92.3 coins 1.67x 2026-11-11 19:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $545 (14.12x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $81.98 on average: an expected loss of $18.02 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt