--- title: "Stardust case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Stardust ($8.11) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.51% over 77.1K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/stardust rendered: 2026-11-11T14:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Stardust](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/stardust) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Stardust A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/stardust?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/stardust?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/stardust) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/stardust?window=all) Price · $8.11 · 11.58 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.51% · 77.1K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 104.70% ±28.71 6,984 openings 7 days · 95.13% ±10.31 62.1K openings 30 days · 92.51% ±8.98 77.1K openings since tracking started · 92.51% ±8.98 77.1K openings 75.5% 104.8% 134.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/stardust?window=24h) | 6,984 | 104.70% ±28.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/stardust?window=7d) | 62.1K | 95.13% ±10.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/stardust) | 77.1K | 92.51% ±8.98 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/stardust?window=all) | 77.1K | 92.51% ±8.98 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · Knives · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $8,011 11,445 coins 988.3x 2026-11-05 01:32 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $6,231 8,902 coins 768.7x 2026-11-05 21:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $4,816 6,880 coins 594.1x 2026-11-09 09:04 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $4,816 6,880 coins 594.1x 2026-11-07 20:08 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $4,816 6,880 coins 594.1x 2026-11-05 11:59 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $4,816 6,880 coins 594.1x 2026-11-04 18:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $4,816 6,880 coins 594.1x 2026-11-03 21:48 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $3,577 5,110 coins 441.3x 2026-11-11 09:07 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $3,577 5,110 coins 441.3x 2026-11-07 02:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $3,577 5,110 coins 441.3x 2026-11-06 01:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=stardust) [Sealed Graffiti | Shooting Star Return graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-shooting-star-return) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Shooting Star Return graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-shooting-star-return) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Shooting Star Return graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-shooting-star-return) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Shooting Star Return graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-shooting-star-return) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Shooting Star Return graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-shooting-star-return) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Shooting Star Return graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-shooting-star-return) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Shooting Star Return graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-shooting-star-return) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Shooting Star Return graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-shooting-star-return) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Shooting Star Return graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-shooting-star-return) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Shooting Star Return graffiti · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-shooting-star-return) Hidden $8.11 11.58 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $8,011 (988.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.51 on average: an expected loss of $7.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt