--- title: "Surprise case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Surprise ($771.83) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.67% over 200 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/surprise rendered: 2026-11-11T22:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Surprise](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/surprise) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Surprise A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/surprise?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/surprise?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/surprise) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/surprise?window=all) Price · $771.83 · 1,103 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.67% · 200 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 80 openings · below min 30 days · 200 openings · below min since tracking started · 200 openings · below min 59.5% 112.3% 165.0% **Small sample.** 200 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/surprise?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/surprise?window=7d) | 80 | 112.29% ±52.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/surprise) | 200 | 92.67% ±27.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/surprise?window=all) | 200 | 92.67% ±27.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $8,414 12,020 coins 10.90x 2026-11-09 11:31 UTC [Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $8,414 12,020 coins 10.90x 2026-11-08 19:01 UTC [Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $8,414 12,020 coins 10.90x 2026-11-08 18:45 UTC [Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $8,414 12,020 coins 10.90x 2026-11-03 22:49 UTC [ESL One Cologne 2014 Cobblestone Souvenir Package container · Souvenir](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-cobblestone-souvenir-package) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $7,025 10,035 coins 9.10x 2026-11-05 00:46 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $6,120 8,743 coins 7.93x 2026-11-03 23:37 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $6,120 8,743 coins 7.93x 2026-11-03 22:49 UTC [Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $4,059 5,799 coins 5.26x 2026-11-09 11:31 UTC [Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $4,059 5,799 coins 5.26x 2026-11-08 19:01 UTC [Sticker | 3DMAX (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $4,059 5,799 coins 5.26x 2026-11-03 23:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=surprise) [SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-battle-scarred) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $306 437 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 08:13 UTC [MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $101 144 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 08:13 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $1,811 2,587 coins 2.35x 2026-11-10 08:13 UTC [MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $101 144 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 08:13 UTC [Sticker | coldzera (Gold) | London 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-gold-london-2018) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $166 237 coins 0.21x 2026-11-10 08:13 UTC [Sticker | coldzera (Gold) | London 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-gold-london-2018) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $166 237 coins 0.21x 2026-11-10 08:13 UTC [MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $101 144 coins 0.13x 2026-11-10 08:13 UTC [SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-battle-scarred) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $772 1,103 coins $306 437 coins 0.40x 2026-11-10 08:13 UTC [Sticker | coldzera (Gold) | London 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-coldzera-gold-london-2018) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $166 237 coins 0.21x 2026-11-09 11:34 UTC [AK-47 | Jet Set (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-factory-new) Hidden $772 1,103 coins $1,333 1,905 coins 1.73x 2026-11-09 11:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $8,414 (10.90x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.67 on average: an expected loss of $7.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt