--- title: "Sweet Melody case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Sweet Melody ($161.68) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 73.65% over 408 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sweet-melody rendered: 2026-11-11T20:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Sweet Melody](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sweet-melody) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Sweet Melody A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sweet-melody?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sweet-melody?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sweet-melody) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sweet-melody?window=all) Price · $161.68 · 231 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 73.65% · 408 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 47 openings · below min 7 days · 297 openings · below min 30 days · 408 openings · below min since tracking started · 408 openings · below min 13.5% 73.0% 132.5% **Small sample.** 408 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sweet-melody?window=24h) | 47 | 72.92% ±59.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sweet-melody?window=7d) | 297 | 73.24% ±18.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sweet-melody) | 408 | 73.65% ±16.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/sweet-melody?window=all) | 408 | 73.65% ±16.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) Hidden $162 231 coins $2,588 3,698 coins 16.01x 2026-11-04 07:36 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $162 231 coins $1,980 2,829 coins 12.25x 2026-11-11 02:53 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $1,414 2,020 coins 8.75x 2026-11-06 23:37 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $1,414 2,020 coins 8.75x 2026-11-04 23:11 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $1,414 2,020 coins 8.75x 2026-11-04 12:47 UTC [Sticker | NEO (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neo-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $162 231 coins $1,085 1,549 coins 6.71x 2026-11-10 21:08 UTC [Sticker | NEO (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neo-gold-krakow-2017) [w1seman](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/w1seman) $162 231 coins $1,085 1,549 coins 6.71x 2026-11-09 11:10 UTC [Sticker | NEO (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neo-gold-krakow-2017) [swerve](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/swerve) $162 231 coins $1,085 1,549 coins 6.71x 2026-11-09 03:21 UTC [Sticker | NEO (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neo-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $162 231 coins $1,085 1,549 coins 6.71x 2026-11-06 13:16 UTC [Sticker | NEO (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-neo-gold-krakow-2017) [ich hab kleine d](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/ich%20hab%20kleine%20d) $162 231 coins $1,085 1,549 coins 6.71x 2026-11-05 16:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=sweet-melody) [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) Hidden $162 231 coins $2.11 3.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $164 234 coins 1.01x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) Hidden $162 231 coins $2.11 3.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) Hidden $162 231 coins $2.11 3.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) Hidden $162 231 coins $2.11 3.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) [Perrcos](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Perrcos) $162 231 coins $2.11 3.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 16:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $162 231 coins $164 234 coins 1.01x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) Hidden $162 231 coins $2.11 3.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC [Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) [FybZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/FybZ) $162 231 coins $2.11 3.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC [Sticker | koosta | Cologne 2016 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-koosta-cologne-2016) Hidden $162 231 coins $16.24 23.2 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,588 (16.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 73.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $73.65 on average: an expected loss of $26.35 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt