--- title: "The Subs case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "The Subs ($21.78) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 89.55% over 1,385 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/the-subs rendered: 2026-11-11T20:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [The Subs](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/the-subs) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · The Subs A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/the-subs?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/the-subs?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/the-subs) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/the-subs?window=all) Price · $21.78 · 31.11 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 89.55% · 1,385 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 96 openings · below min 7 days · 92.23% ±12.87 1,138 openings 30 days · 89.55% ±11.81 1,385 openings since tracking started · 89.55% ±11.81 1,385 openings 41.5% 73.8% 106.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/the-subs?window=24h) | 96 | 70.51% ±28.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/the-subs?window=7d) | 1,138 | 92.23% ±12.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/the-subs) | 1,385 | 89.55% ±11.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/the-subs?window=all) | 1,385 | 89.55% ±11.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $21.78 31.11 coins $903 1,291 coins 41.48x 2026-11-07 21:10 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $21.78 31.11 coins $556 794 coins 25.51x 2026-11-05 11:06 UTC [MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-factory-new) Hidden $21.78 31.11 coins $556 794 coins 25.51x 2026-11-04 11:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=the-subs) [StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-field-tested) Hidden $21.78 31.11 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-field-tested) Hidden $21.78 31.11 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) Hidden $21.78 31.11 coins $12.93 18.47 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC [MP9 | Stained Glass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-battle-scarred) Hidden $21.78 31.11 coins $62.47 89.25 coins 2.87x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC [UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) Hidden $21.78 31.11 coins $12.93 18.47 coins 0.59x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC [MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) [keytowin](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/keytowin) $21.78 31.11 coins $41.00 58.57 coins 1.88x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC [MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-factory-new) Hidden $21.78 31.11 coins $184 263 coins 8.45x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-grim-field-tested) Hidden $21.78 31.11 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC [MP9 | Mount Fuji (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-well-worn) Hidden $21.78 31.11 coins $2.32 3.32 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC [MAC-10 | Toybox (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-minimal-wear) Hidden $21.78 31.11 coins $5.52 7.88 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $903 (41.48x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.55 on average: an expected loss of $10.45 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt