--- title: "Thorn case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Thorn ($0.88) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 95.18% over 252K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/thorn rendered: 2026-11-11T12:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Thorn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/thorn) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Thorn A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/thorn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/thorn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/thorn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/thorn?window=all) Price · $0.88 · 1.25 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 95.18% · 252K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.05% ±46.35 26.2K openings 7 days · 91.57% ±16.72 216K openings 30 days · 95.18% ±16.01 252K openings since tracking started · 95.18% ±16.01 252K openings 45.0% 92.0% 139.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/thorn?window=24h) | 26.2K | 92.05% ±46.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/thorn?window=7d) | 216K | 91.57% ±16.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/thorn) | 252K | 95.18% ±16.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/thorn?window=all) | 252K | 95.18% ±16.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins $4,269 6,098 coins 4,878x 2026-11-08 14:54 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins $4,269 6,098 coins 4,878x 2026-11-04 15:01 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins $4,269 6,098 coins 4,878x 2026-11-04 10:40 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins $3,601 5,144 coins 4,115x 2026-11-08 01:40 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins $3,601 5,144 coins 4,115x 2026-11-08 00:40 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins $3,601 5,144 coins 4,115x 2026-11-05 12:44 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins $3,601 5,144 coins 4,115x 2026-11-03 17:41 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins $2,752 3,932 coins 3,145x 2026-11-10 22:08 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins $2,752 3,932 coins 3,145x 2026-11-10 15:19 UTC [★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins $2,752 3,932 coins 3,145x 2026-11-09 17:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=thorn) [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Frog Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-frog-green) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Frog Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-frog-green) [pf](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/pf) $0.88 1.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Frog Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-frog-green) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Frog Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-frog-green) [pf](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/pf) $0.88 1.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Frog Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-frog-green) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Frog Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-frog-green) [pf](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/pf) $0.88 1.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Frog Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-frog-green) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Frog Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-frog-green) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Frog Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-frog-green) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Frog Green) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-frog-green) Hidden $0.88 1.25 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $4,269 (4,878x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.18 on average: an expected loss of $4.82 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt