--- title: "Warning case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Warning ($4.82) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.66% over 3,434 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/warning rendered: 2026-11-12T02:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Warning](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/warning) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Warning A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/warning?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/warning?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/warning) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/warning?window=all) Price · $4.82 · 6.89 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.66% · 3,434 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 205 openings · below min 7 days · 85.26% ±11.46 2,492 openings 30 days · 84.66% ±9.40 3,434 openings since tracking started · 84.66% ±9.40 3,434 openings 35.0% 76.8% 118.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/warning?window=24h) | 205 | 76.84% ±41.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/warning?window=7d) | 2,492 | 85.26% ±11.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/warning) | 3,434 | 84.66% ±9.40 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/warning?window=all) | 3,434 | 84.66% ±9.40 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=warning) [MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $4.82 6.89 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-12 00:45 UTC [MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $4.82 6.89 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-12 00:45 UTC [MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) [el asesino](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/el%20asesino) $4.82 6.89 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-12 00:45 UTC [P250 | Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.82 6.89 coins $0.83 1.18 coins 0.17x 2026-11-12 00:43 UTC [MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $4.82 6.89 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-12 00:43 UTC [SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-field-tested) [el asesino](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/el%20asesino) $4.82 6.89 coins $4.66 6.65 coins 0.97x 2026-11-12 00:43 UTC [MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $4.82 6.89 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:55 UTC [P250 | Wingshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.82 6.89 coins $0.83 1.18 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 22:55 UTC [M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) Hidden $4.82 6.89 coins $1.33 1.9 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 22:55 UTC [MAC-10 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $4.82 6.89 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 22:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.66 on average: an expected loss of $15.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt