--- title: "Watch Box case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Watch Box ($95.15) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 95.79% over 1,729 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/watch-box rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Watch Box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/watch-box) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Watch Box A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/watch-box?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/watch-box?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/watch-box) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/watch-box?window=all) Price · $95.15 · 136 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 95.79% · 1,729 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 232 openings · below min 7 days · 96.13% ±13.52 1,550 openings 30 days · 95.79% ±12.76 1,729 openings since tracking started · 95.79% ±12.76 1,729 openings 52.0% 84.8% 117.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/watch-box?window=24h) | 232 | 84.73% ±32.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/watch-box?window=7d) | 1,550 | 96.13% ±13.5 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/watch-box) | 1,729 | 95.79% ±12.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/watch-box?window=all) | 1,729 | 95.79% ±12.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1,089 1,556 coins 11.44x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1,089 1,556 coins 11.44x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1,089 1,556 coins 11.44x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1,089 1,556 coins 11.44x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) [ROBO VERS](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/ROBO%20VERS) $95.15 136 coins $1,089 1,556 coins 11.44x 2026-11-11 08:49 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1,089 1,556 coins 11.44x 2026-11-10 20:39 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1,089 1,556 coins 11.44x 2026-11-10 19:46 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1,089 1,556 coins 11.44x 2026-11-10 19:45 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1,089 1,556 coins 11.44x 2026-11-10 18:42 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1,089 1,556 coins 11.44x 2026-11-10 18:42 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=watch-box) [Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $9.83 14.05 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $2.67 3.81 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-well-worn) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1.33 1.9 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Tec-9 | Safety Net (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-well-worn) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1.33 1.9 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-battle-scarred) [Master Splinter](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Master%20Splinter) $95.15 136 coins $16.18 23.11 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [Souvenir Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-negev-nuclear-waste-factory-new) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $3.93 5.62 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Vogue (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-well-worn) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $2.67 3.81 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-well-worn) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [Tec-9 | Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) Hidden $95.15 136 coins $9.83 14.05 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,089 (11.44x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.79 on average: an expected loss of $4.21 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt