--- title: "Whale case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Whale ($77.22) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 90.60% over 638 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/whale rendered: 2026-11-11T20:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Whale](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/whale) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Whale A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/whale?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/whale?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/whale) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/whale?window=all) Price · $77.22 · 110 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 90.60% · 638 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 553 openings · below min 30 days · 638 openings · below min since tracking started · 638 openings · below min 31.5% 70.5% 109.5% **Small sample.** 638 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/whale?window=24h) | 38 | 70.26% ±38.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/whale?window=7d) | 553 | 88.60% ±15.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/whale) | 638 | 90.60% ±15.1 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/whale?window=all) | 638 | 90.60% ±15.1 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $1,320 1,885 coins 17.09x 2026-11-05 13:44 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [Maikelele](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Maikelele) $77.22 110 coins $1,021 1,459 coins 13.22x 2026-11-10 19:27 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $1,021 1,459 coins 13.22x 2026-11-06 10:36 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [twitch.tv/MrBarnee](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/twitch.tv%2FMrBarnee) $77.22 110 coins $1,021 1,459 coins 13.22x 2026-11-06 10:34 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [MIZO](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/MIZO) $77.22 110 coins $1,021 1,459 coins 13.22x 2026-11-04 19:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [deneb7](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/deneb7) $77.22 110 coins $1,021 1,459 coins 13.22x 2026-11-04 00:16 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $846 1,209 coins 10.96x 2026-11-09 16:56 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $846 1,209 coins 10.96x 2026-11-05 12:55 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $846 1,209 coins 10.96x 2026-11-03 00:38 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $660 943 coins 8.55x 2026-11-09 19:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=whale) [P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $31.88 45.54 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $52.65 75.21 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $451 645 coins 5.85x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $5.68 8.11 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $0.62 0.88 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) [FybZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/FybZ) $77.22 110 coins $76.33 109 coins 0.99x 2026-11-11 14:50 UTC [SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-minimal-wear) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $52.65 75.21 coins 0.68x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $18.28 26.11 coins 0.24x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cobalt-core-factory-new) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $0.62 0.88 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC [StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dark Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $77.22 110 coins $2.95 4.22 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,320 (17.09x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.60 on average: an expected loss of $9.40 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt