--- title: "X-Mas Spirit case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "X-Mas Spirit ($1,092.81) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 75.11% over 38 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/x-mas-spirit rendered: 2026-11-13T06:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [X-Mas Spirit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/x-mas-spirit) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · X-Mas Spirit A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/x-mas-spirit?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/x-mas-spirit?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/x-mas-spirit) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/x-mas-spirit?window=all) Price · $1,092.81 · 1,561 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 75.11% · 38 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 38 openings · below min since tracking started · 38 openings · below min 0.0% 55.8% 111.5% **Small sample.** 38 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/x-mas-spirit?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/x-mas-spirit?window=7d) | 6 | 17.40% ±16.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/x-mas-spirit) | 38 | 75.11% ±35.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/x-mas-spirit?window=all) | 38 | 75.11% ±35.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $4,157 5,939 coins 3.80x 2026-11-03 23:18 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $3,477 4,967 coins 3.18x 2026-11-03 23:33 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $3,477 4,967 coins 3.18x 2026-11-03 23:33 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $3,477 4,967 coins 3.18x 2026-11-03 23:25 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $2,328 3,326 coins 2.13x 2026-11-03 23:39 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $2,328 3,326 coins 2.13x 2026-11-03 23:39 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $2,328 3,326 coins 2.13x 2026-11-03 23:25 UTC [MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $2,328 3,326 coins 2.13x 2026-11-03 23:18 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $1,497 2,138 coins 1.37x 2026-11-03 23:39 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $1,026 1,465 coins 0.94x 2026-11-03 23:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=x-mas-spirit) [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-afterimage-field-tested) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $17.69 25.27 coins 0.02x 2026-11-07 03:11 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $394 562 coins 0.36x 2026-11-07 03:11 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $78.92 113 coins 0.07x 2026-11-07 03:11 UTC [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Afterimage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-afterimage-field-tested) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $17.69 25.27 coins 0.02x 2026-11-07 03:11 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $1,093 1,561 coins $78.92 113 coins 0.07x 2026-11-07 03:11 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-minimal-wear) [ElpassoCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/ElpassoCS) $1,093 1,561 coins $554 791 coins 0.51x 2026-11-07 03:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $4,157 (3.80x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 75.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $75.11 on average: an expected loss of $24.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt