---
title: "Achroma case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Achroma ($0.74) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.80% from 29 items with odds, observed 92.57% over 114K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/achroma-case
rendered: 2026-11-12T04:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Achroma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/achroma-case)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Achroma

A case on Skin.club (Collection Vault), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/achroma-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/achroma-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/achroma-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/achroma-case?window=all)

Price · $0.74

Advertised RTP · 92.80% · EV $0.69 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.57% · 114K openings, odds method

Variance · 13.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.77% ±6.31 13.5K openings

7 days · 92.59% ±2.44 91.2K openings

30 days · 92.57% ±2.18 114K openings

since tracking started · 92.57% ±2.18 114K openings

84.0% 90.8% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/achroma-case?window=24h) | 13.5K | 90.77% ±6.31 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/achroma-case?window=7d) | 91.2K | 92.59% ±2.44 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/achroma-case) | 114K | 92.57% ±2.18 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/achroma-case?window=all) | 114K | 92.57% ±2.18 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 114K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $43.82 | 12.8% | 220 | 228.3 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| The End (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $15.86 | 23.1% | 1,113 | 1141.7 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $7.95 | 13.9% | 1,401 | 1370.0 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $5.02 | 14.6% | 2,327 | 2283.4 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $4.21 | 12.3% | 2,380 | 2283.4 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $1.73 | 5.0% | 2,294 | 2283.4 | 1.00× |
| [AUG \| Creep (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-creep-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.78 | 2.3% | 2,293 | 2283.4 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.62 | 1.8% | 2,288 | 2283.4 | 1.00× |
| [P2000 \| Grip Tape (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grip-tape-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.62 | 1.8% | 2,189 | 2283.4 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $0.55 | 1.6% | 2,381 | 2340.5 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Creep (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-creep-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.32 | 1.3% | 3,137 | 3082.6 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Grip Tape (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grip-tape-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.31 | 1.2% | 3,148 | 3082.6 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-daily-deagle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.30 | 1.2% | 2,996 | 3082.6 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $0.28 | 1.1% | 3,017 | 3082.6 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $0.17 | 0.7% | 3,135 | 3231.0 | 0.97× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Dark Chamber (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.16 | 0.8% | 3,461 | 3938.8 | 0.88× |
| [FAMAS \| Vendetta (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-vendetta-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.13 | 0.7% | 4,054 | 4167.2 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-snow-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.13 | 0.7% | 3,987 | 4167.2 | 0.96× |
| [MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-snow-splash-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.13 | 0.6% | 4,075 | 3425.1 | 1.19× |
| [M4A4 \| Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.05 | 0.4% | 6,092 | 5514.4 | 1.10× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Silver Pour (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-silver-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.04 | 0.3% | 6,706 | 6793.1 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Sleet (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sleet-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.04 | 0.3% | 6,520 | 5845.5 | 1.12× |
| [MAC-10 \| Snow Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-snow-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.04 | 0.3% | 6,528 | 6793.1 | 0.96× |
| [M249 \| Sleet (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-sleet-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.03 | 0.2% | 6,802 | 5845.5 | 1.16× |
| [MP9 \| Dizzy (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dizzy-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.03 | 0.3% | 6,818 | 6793.1 | 1.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Zinc (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.03 | 0.3% | 6,158 | 6793.1 | 0.91× |
| [Nova \| Currents (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-currents-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.02 | 0.2% | 6,771 | 6793.1 | 1.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Bizoom (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bizoom-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.02 | 0.2% | 6,001 | 6165.1 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Sans Comic (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sans-comic-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.02 | 0.2% | 5,877 | 6793.1 | 0.87× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/achroma-case`, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) [-Raw0](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/-Raw0) $0.76 $45.72 60.16x 2026-11-05 00:16 UTC

[AWP | The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 $45.66 60.08x 2026-11-06 02:21 UTC

[AWP | The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 $45.66 60.08x 2026-11-06 01:44 UTC

[AWP | The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 $45.64 60.05x 2026-11-04 03:17 UTC

[AWP | The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 $45.64 60.05x 2026-11-04 03:03 UTC

[AWP | The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) Hidden $0.76 $45.61 60.01x 2026-11-06 00:21 UTC

[AWP | The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) [Semi](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Semi) $0.75 $45.60 60.80x 2026-11-06 15:26 UTC

[AWP | The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) [Krosshair](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Krosshair) $0.75 $45.60 60.80x 2026-11-06 12:29 UTC

[AWP | The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) Hidden $0.75 $45.60 60.80x 2026-11-06 12:29 UTC

[AWP | The End (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-factory-new) Hidden $0.75 $45.60 60.80x 2026-11-06 11:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=achroma-case)

[PP-Bizon | Bizoom (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bizoom-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-12 04:06 UTC

[SSG 08 | Sans Comic (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sans-comic-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-12 04:06 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-dark-chamber-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 $0.16 0.22x 2026-11-12 04:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-minimal-wear) [Lonk](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Lonk) $0.74 $0.05 0.07x 2026-11-12 04:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) [legendary](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/legendary) $0.74 $4.98 6.73x 2026-11-12 03:58 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Bizoom (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bizoom-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC

[MP9 | Dizzy (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dizzy-factory-new) [Bokii\_86](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Bokii_86) $0.74 $0.03 0.04x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC

[Nova | Currents (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-currents-factory-new) Hidden $0.74 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC

[FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-vendetta-factory-new) [Rajin Bin Malas](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Rajin%20Bin%20Malas) $0.74 $0.13 0.18x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC

[M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-aeolian-dark-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.74 $0.05 0.07x 2026-11-12 03:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $0.74 | 92.80% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.74 | 92.72% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.74 | 92.35% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.74 | 92.55% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.74 | 92.87% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.74 | 92.47% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.74 | 92.14% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.74 | 92.52% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.74 | 92.71% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.74 | 92.80% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.75 | 92.26% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.75 | 92.83% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.76 | 92.05% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.75 | 93.09% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.75 | 93.10% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.75 | 93.09% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.76 | 92.03% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.76 | 91.97% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.75 | 92.61% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.75 | 92.50% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.75 | 92.57% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.75 | 92.84% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.75 | 92.63% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.75 | 92.54% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.76 | 92.32% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.75 | 92.85% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.75 | 92.43% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.75 | 92.20% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.75 | 92.94% | 29 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $0.76 | 93.06% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Legendary 0.2% pink 1.0% Mythical 7.2% #4b69ff 6.0% Rare 10.1% milspec 2.7% Uncommon 24.4% #5e98d9 3.0% Common 33.5% #b0c3d9 11.9% best hit $45.72 (60.16x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.80 on average: an expected loss of $7.20 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt