--- title: "Arena case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Arena ($0.35) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.41% from 19 items with odds, observed 92.34% over 374K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/arena-case rendered: 2026-11-12T02:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Arena](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/arena-case) # [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Arena A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/arena-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/arena-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/arena-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/arena-case?window=all) Price · $0.35 Advertised RTP · 93.41% · EV $0.33 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.34% · 374K openings, odds method Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 93.65% ±2.25 36.9K openings 7 days · 92.26% ±0.75 281K openings 30 days · 92.34% ±0.64 374K openings since tracking started · 92.34% ±0.64 374K openings 90.5% 93.5% 96.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/arena-case?window=24h) | 36.9K | 93.65% ±2.25 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/arena-case?window=7d) | 281K | 92.26% ±0.75 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/arena-case) | 374K | 92.34% ±0.64 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/arena-case?window=all) | 374K | 92.34% ±0.64 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 375K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $21.17 | 1.3% | 87 | 75.0 | 1.16× | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $16.81 | 1.0% | 66 | 75.0 | 0.88× | | [MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $13.05 | 3.2% | 318 | 299.9 | 1.06× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $12.78 | 3.1% | 274 | 299.9 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $7.74 | 2.4% | 360 | 374.8 | 0.96× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $3.82 | 3.5% | 1,128 | 1124.5 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $3.42 | 4.2% | 1,524 | 1499.4 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.40 | 12.8% | 11,236 | 11245.1 | 1.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.67 | 6.1% | 25,684 | 11245.1 | 2.28× | | [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.59 | 5.4% | 16,754 | 11245.1 | 1.49× | | [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.58 | 7.1% | 25,035 | 14993.5 | 1.67× | | [MAC-10 \| Ensnared (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ensnared-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $0.57 | 7.0% | 15,263 | 14993.5 | 1.02× | | [FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-halftone-wash-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.47 | 11.5% | 16,352 | 29987.0 | 0.55× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-briefing-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.35 | 10.7% | 20,922 | 37483.8 | 0.56× | | [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.28 | 8.6% | 37,142 | 37483.8 | 0.99× | | [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $0.13 | 4.8% | 49,956 | 44980.6 | 1.11× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.08 | 3.4% | 47,392 | 52477.3 | 0.90× | | [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $0.06 | 2.6% | 52,692 | 52477.3 | 1.00× | | [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) | 14.0% | $0.03 | 1.3% | 52,653 | 52477.3 | 1.00× | Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/arena-case`, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) [Triage Moneghetti](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Triage%20Moneghetti) $0.39 $22.53 57.77x 2026-11-08 06:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) [Triage Moneghetti](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Triage%20Moneghetti) $0.39 $22.53 57.77x 2026-11-08 06:53 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) Hidden $0.39 $22.49 57.67x 2026-11-08 05:19 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) [h](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/h) $0.39 $22.48 57.64x 2026-11-08 04:28 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $22.38 55.95x 2026-11-06 12:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $22.38 55.95x 2026-11-06 12:54 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) [✪ ™](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%E2%9C%AA%20%E2%84%A2) $0.40 $22.38 55.95x 2026-11-06 12:02 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) [Q-COLD](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Q-COLD) $0.40 $22.38 55.95x 2026-11-06 12:01 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) Hidden $0.41 $22.37 54.56x 2026-11-06 15:53 UTC [Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) [GDKRECORDS](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/GDKRECORDS) $0.39 $22.37 57.36x 2026-11-03 23:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=arena-case) [FAMAS | Halftone Wash (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-halftone-wash-factory-new) [artemis.](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/artemis.) $0.36 $0.47 1.31x 2026-11-12 02:51 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 $0.09 0.25x 2026-11-12 02:51 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 $0.03 0.08x 2026-11-12 02:51 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.36 $0.06 0.17x 2026-11-12 02:51 UTC [Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-minimal-wear) [El\_buttmuncher](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/El_buttmuncher) $0.36 $0.13 0.36x 2026-11-12 02:51 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.36 $0.06 0.17x 2026-11-12 02:51 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.36 $0.06 0.17x 2026-11-12 02:51 UTC [M4A4 | Steel Work (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-field-tested) [artemis.](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/artemis.) $0.36 $0.03 0.08x 2026-11-12 02:51 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-monkeyflage-field-tested) Hidden $0.36 $0.09 0.25x 2026-11-12 02:51 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.36 $0.67 1.86x 2026-11-12 02:51 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.35 | 93.41% | 19 | | 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.35 | 92.78% | 19 | | 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.35 | 93.30% | 19 | | 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.36 | 91.47% | 19 | | 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.36 | 91.78% | 19 | | 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.36 | 91.94% | 19 | | 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.36 | 92.95% | 19 | | 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.36 | 92.65% | 19 | | 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.37 | 91.65% | 19 | | 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.37 | 91.33% | 19 | | 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.40 | 92.43% | 19 | | 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.40 | 92.21% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.40 | 91.90% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.40 | 91.50% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.39 | 93.16% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.39 | 93.13% | 19 | | 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.39 | 92.48% | 19 | | 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.39 | 91.99% | 19 | | 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.39 | 92.41% | 19 | | 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.40 | 93.21% | 19 | | 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.40 | 92.85% | 19 | | 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.41 | 92.87% | 19 | | 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.40 | 91.47% | 19 | | 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.40 | 92.62% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.40 | 92.24% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.40 | 91.81% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.39 | 93.25% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.39 | 92.72% | 19 | | 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $0.40 | 91.61% | 19 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.39 | 92.61% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Legendary 3.4% pink 0.4% mil spec 0.1% classified 0.1% Rare 48.0% Uncommon 48.0% best hit $22.53 (57.77x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.41 on average: an expected loss of $6.59 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt