---
title: "Ascent case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ascent ($0.42) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.70% from 29 items with odds, observed 93.05% over 149K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/ascent-collection
rendered: 2026-11-12T07:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Ascent](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/ascent-collection)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Ascent

A case on Skin.club (Collection Vault), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/ascent-collection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/ascent-collection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/ascent-collection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/ascent-collection?window=all)

Price · $0.42

Advertised RTP · 92.70% · EV $0.39 from 29 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.05% · 149K openings, odds method

Variance · 19.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 59 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.45% ±7.36 14.1K openings

7 days · 93.59% ±2.54 117K openings

30 days · 93.05% ±2.24 149K openings

since tracking started · 93.05% ±2.24 149K openings

82.5% 90.5% 98.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/ascent-collection?window=24h) | 14.1K | 90.45% ±7.36 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/ascent-collection?window=7d) | 117K | 93.59% ±2.54 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/ascent-collection) | 149K | 93.05% ±2.24 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/ascent-collection?window=all) | 149K | 93.05% ±2.24 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 149K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $31.78 | 16.3% | 312 | 298.6 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $12.23 | 12.6% | 583 | 597.2 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $10.13 | 13.0% | 722 | 746.5 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $6.20 | 9.6% | 908 | 895.7 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $4.47 | 6.9% | 934 | 895.7 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $3.60 | 6.5% | 1,037 | 1045.0 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $2.18 | 4.5% | 1,237 | 1194.3 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $0.98 | 2.8% | 1,906 | 1642.2 | 1.16× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $0.70 | 2.3% | 1,742 | 1940.8 | 0.90× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) | 1 in 83 | $0.69 | 2.1% | 1,734 | 1791.5 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $0.55 | 2.3% | 2,310 | 2388.7 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $0.41 | 1.7% | 2,447 | 2388.7 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $0.40 | 1.7% | 2,461 | 2537.9 | 0.97× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $0.31 | 1.9% | 3,785 | 3583.0 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $0.30 | 2.1% | 3,820 | 4030.9 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $0.21 | 1.7% | 4,850 | 4777.3 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.17 | 1.7% | 5,962 | 5673.1 | 1.05× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.15 | 1.6% | 5,737 | 6120.9 | 0.94× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.12 | 1.5% | 7,396 | 7464.6 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.07 | 0.9% | 9,512 | 7763.1 | 1.23× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.07 | 1.1% | 9,816 | 9106.8 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.07 | 1.0% | 9,867 | 8658.9 | 1.14× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.06 | 0.8% | 9,237 | 8211.0 | 1.12× |
| [SG 553 \| Night Camo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.04 | 0.6% | 9,165 | 9256.0 | 0.99× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.03 | 0.7% | 10,626 | 13436.2 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.03 | 0.6% | 10,741 | 10749.0 | 1.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.03 | 0.5% | 9,967 | 10450.4 | 0.95× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.03 | 0.6% | 10,236 | 11495.4 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.02 | 0.3% | 10,241 | 10151.8 | 1.01× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/ascent-collection`, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) [➹𝐑𝐞𝐕𝟏➷](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%E2%9E%B9%F0%9D%90%91%F0%9D%90%9E%F0%9D%90%95%F0%9D%9F%8F%E2%9E%B7) $0.42 $32.54 77.48x 2026-11-10 04:04 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) [➹𝐑𝐞𝐕𝟏➷](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%E2%9E%B9%F0%9D%90%91%F0%9D%90%9E%F0%9D%90%95%F0%9D%9F%8F%E2%9E%B7) $0.42 $32.54 77.48x 2026-11-10 04:01 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) [➹𝐑𝐞𝐕𝟏➷](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%E2%9E%B9%F0%9D%90%91%F0%9D%90%9E%F0%9D%90%95%F0%9D%9F%8F%E2%9E%B7) $0.42 $32.54 77.48x 2026-11-10 03:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) [➹𝐑𝐞𝐕𝟏➷](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%E2%9E%B9%F0%9D%90%91%F0%9D%90%9E%F0%9D%90%95%F0%9D%9F%8F%E2%9E%B7) $0.42 $32.54 77.48x 2026-11-10 03:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) [➹𝐑𝐞𝐕𝟏➷](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%E2%9E%B9%F0%9D%90%91%F0%9D%90%9E%F0%9D%90%95%F0%9D%9F%8F%E2%9E%B7) $0.42 $32.54 77.48x 2026-11-10 03:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) [➹𝐑𝐞𝐕𝟏➷](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%E2%9E%B9%F0%9D%90%91%F0%9D%90%9E%F0%9D%90%95%F0%9D%9F%8F%E2%9E%B7) $0.42 $32.54 77.48x 2026-11-10 03:11 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) [beast](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/beast) $0.42 $32.54 77.48x 2026-11-10 02:53 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) Hidden $0.42 $32.54 77.48x 2026-11-10 02:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) Hidden $0.42 $32.54 77.48x 2026-11-09 23:56 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) Hidden $0.42 $32.54 77.48x 2026-11-09 23:07 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=ascent-collection)

[P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-royal-baroque-factory-new) [ikillernemo](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/ikillernemo) $0.42 $0.69 1.64x 2026-11-12 07:09 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) [Serahp](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Serahp) $0.42 $0.07 0.17x 2026-11-12 07:09 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) Hidden $0.42 $0.07 0.17x 2026-11-12 07:07 UTC

[Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-factory-new) Hidden $0.42 $0.17 0.40x 2026-11-12 07:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $0.42 $12.23 29.12x 2026-11-12 07:07 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-factory-new) [piyan party](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/piyan%20party) $0.42 $0.15 0.36x 2026-11-12 07:07 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.42 $0.06 0.14x 2026-11-12 07:07 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-field-tested) Hidden $0.42 $0.02 0.05x 2026-11-12 07:07 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-field-tested) Hidden $0.42 $0.02 0.05x 2026-11-12 07:07 UTC

[SG 553 | Night Camo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-night-camo-factory-new) [spoks](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/spoks) $0.42 $0.04 0.10x 2026-11-12 07:07 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $0.42 | 92.70% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.42 | 92.82% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.42 | 92.26% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.42 | 92.46% | 29 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.42 | 92.50% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.42 | 92.28% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.42 | 92.40% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.42 | 92.62% | 29 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.42 | 93.26% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.42 | 93.25% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.42 | 93.36% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.43 | 91.70% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.43 | 92.01% | 29 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $0.43 | 91.95% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.43 | 92.09% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.43 | 92.65% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.43 | 92.43% | 29 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.43 | 93.08% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.43 | 93.30% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.43 | 92.95% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.43 | 92.43% | 29 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.43 | 92.90% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.43 | 93.04% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.43 | 92.75% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.43 | 92.62% | 29 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.43 | 92.30% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.43 | 92.63% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.43 | 92.82% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.43 | 93.09% | 29 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.43 | 93.21% | 29 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed pink 0.2% Mythical 2.4% classified 0.5% Classified 0.7% Rare 4.3% uncommon 2.5% #4b69ff 1.7% Uncommon 35.6% common 10.9% Common 11.4% #5e98d9 15.1% industrial 7.0% light blue 7.7% best hit $32.54 (77.48x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.70 on average: an expected loss of $7.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt