---
title: "AWP case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "AWP ($3.53) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.50% from 39 items with odds, observed 91.96% over 52.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/awp
rendered: 2026-11-12T01:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [AWP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/awp)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · AWP

A case on Skin.club (By type), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/awp?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/awp?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/awp) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/awp?window=all)

Price · $3.53

Advertised RTP · 92.50% · EV $3.27 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.96% · 52.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 7.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.87% ±6.59 6,444 openings

7 days · 91.63% ±2.62 41.5K openings

30 days · 91.96% ±2.33 52.8K openings

since tracking started · 91.96% ±2.33 52.8K openings

83.5% 90.8% 98.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/awp?window=24h) | 6,444 | 90.87% ±6.59 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/awp?window=7d) | 41.5K | 91.63% ±2.62 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/awp) | 52.8K | 91.96% ±2.33 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/awp?window=all) | 52.8K | 91.96% ±2.33 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $222 | 1.4% | 5 | 10.6 | 0.47× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $195 | 1.5% | 11 | 13.2 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $171 | 1.6% | 16 | 15.9 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $128 | 1.4% | 15 | 18.5 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $117 | 1.4% | 20 | 21.2 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $113 | 1.4% | 26 | 21.2 | 1.23× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $99.99 | 1.5% | 26 | 26.5 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,818 | $97.82 | 1.6% | 29 | 29.1 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $86.27 | 1.6% | 37 | 31.7 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $71.21 | 1.7% | 36 | 42.3 | 0.85× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $63.30 | 1.6% | 38 | 42.3 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $62.27 | 1.5% | 42 | 42.3 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-field-tested) | 1 in 1,176 | $54.53 | 1.4% | 52 | 45.0 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $50.46 | 1.4% | 47 | 47.6 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,053 | $45.69 | 1.3% | 49 | 50.3 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 833 | $37.91 | 1.4% | 62 | 63.5 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $37.69 | 1.6% | 55 | 74.1 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $36.77 | 1.7% | 85 | 79.4 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 625 | $34.00 | 1.7% | 92 | 84.7 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $30.47 | 1.9% | 104 | 105.8 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $26.40 | 2.4% | 164 | 158.7 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $20.49 | 1.9% | 178 | 158.7 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $18.01 | 2.8% | 241 | 264.6 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $13.57 | 4.2% | 575 | 529.1 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $13.33 | 4.1% | 547 | 529.1 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $10.44 | 5.4% | 940 | 899.5 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $6.74 | 4.5% | 1,123 | 1164.0 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $4.86 | 3.7% | 1,455 | 1322.8 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $4.74 | 4.4% | 1,452 | 1587.3 | 0.91× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $4.22 | 5.2% | 2,152 | 2116.4 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.62 | 4.0% | 3,075 | 2645.6 | 1.16× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $2.60 | 4.8% | 2,643 | 3174.7 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.15 | 5.3% | 4,295 | 4232.9 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.99 | 4.9% | 4,206 | 4232.9 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $1.83 | 4.5% | 4,304 | 4232.9 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.89 | 3.0% | 5,757 | 5820.2 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.69 | 2.3% | 5,793 | 5820.2 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.31 | 1.1% | 6,356 | 6349.3 | 1.00× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 12.9% | $0.26 | 1.0% | 6,808 | 6807.0 | 1.00× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/awp`, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) Hidden $3.53 $231 65.43x 2026-11-09 14:36 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) Hidden $3.53 $230 65.13x 2026-11-10 06:26 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [ANTIN](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/ANTIN) $3.53 $230 65.12x 2026-11-10 07:52 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [ANTIN](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/ANTIN) $3.53 $230 65.12x 2026-11-10 07:51 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) Hidden $3.54 $229 64.59x 2026-11-06 04:07 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [Schmidley](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Schmidley) $3.52 $226 64.22x 2026-11-11 02:42 UTC

[AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) [piyan party](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/piyan%20party) $3.52 $223 63.30x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-field-tested) Hidden $3.56 $204 57.43x 2026-11-04 01:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-field-tested) Hidden $3.55 $204 57.59x 2026-11-04 03:22 UTC

[AWP | BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) [Ywen](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Ywen) $3.56 $204 57.42x 2026-11-03 20:30 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=awp)

[AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $3.55 $0.90 0.25x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC

[AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) Hidden $3.55 $0.69 0.19x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC

[AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) Hidden $3.55 $2.60 0.73x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) [Xtreme](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Xtreme) $3.55 $2.18 0.61x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC

[AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) [kenkon85](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/kenkon85) $3.55 $2.60 0.73x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC

[AWP | Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) Hidden $3.55 $2.60 0.73x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC

[AWP | Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) Hidden $3.55 $0.31 0.09x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) [kenkon85](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/kenkon85) $3.55 $1.87 0.53x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.55 $13.34 3.76x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) Hidden $3.55 $2.18 0.61x 2026-11-12 01:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $3.53 | 92.50% | 39 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $3.52 | 92.44% | 39 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $3.52 | 92.53% | 39 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $3.52 | 92.62% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $3.52 | 92.50% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $3.53 | 92.41% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $3.53 | 92.51% | 39 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $3.53 | 92.54% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $3.53 | 92.44% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $3.54 | 92.41% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $3.53 | 92.63% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 02:03 UTC | $3.55 | 92.46% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $3.55 | 92.52% | 39 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $3.54 | 92.60% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $3.55 | 92.40% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $3.55 | 92.51% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $3.55 | 92.45% | 39 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $3.54 | 92.52% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $3.55 | 92.38% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $3.54 | 92.54% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $3.54 | 92.42% | 39 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $3.53 | 92.63% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $3.55 | 92.56% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $3.54 | 92.50% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.55 | 92.52% | 39 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.56 | 92.46% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.54 | 92.61% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $3.54 | 92.57% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $3.53 | 92.46% | 39 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $3.54 | 92.61% | 39 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.5% Legendary 3.5% classified 1.7% red 0.0% mil spec 0.1% Ancient 0.2% rare 0.2% restricted 23.1% industrial 13.2% #d32ce6 1.0% Mythical 9.7% violet 2.2% Classified 2.5% #8847ff 5.0% Mil Spec Grade 6.0% Rare 8.0% milspec 11.0% Mil Spec 12.0% best hit $231 (65.43x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.50 on average: an expected loss of $7.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt