---
title: "Boreal case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Boreal ($0.35) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.03% from 27 items with odds, observed 93.03% over 125K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/boreal-collection
rendered: 2026-11-12T10:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Boreal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/boreal-collection)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Boreal

A case on Skin.club (Collection Vault), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/boreal-collection?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/boreal-collection?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/boreal-collection) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/boreal-collection?window=all)

Price · $0.35

Advertised RTP · 92.03% · EV $0.32 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.03% · 125K openings, odds method

Variance · 18.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 35 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.24% ±6.69 15.7K openings

7 days · 93.14% ±2.51 102K openings

30 days · 93.03% ±2.24 125K openings

since tracking started · 93.03% ±2.24 125K openings

84.0% 91.3% 98.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/boreal-collection?window=24h) | 15.7K | 91.24% ±6.69 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/boreal-collection?window=7d) | 102K | 93.14% ±2.51 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/boreal-collection) | 125K | 93.03% ±2.24 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/boreal-collection?window=all) | 125K | 93.03% ±2.24 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $28.93 | 15.3% | 171 | 212.9 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $13.27 | 12.4% | 386 | 375.6 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $6.50 | 6.1% | 404 | 375.6 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $4.24 | 3.9% | 393 | 375.6 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 196 | $3.42 | 5.4% | 653 | 638.6 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $2.93 | 5.5% | 759 | 751.3 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $1.75 | 3.8% | 916 | 876.5 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $1.39 | 3.0% | 864 | 876.5 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $1.32 | 2.9% | 894 | 876.5 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $1.09 | 2.9% | 1,139 | 1089.3 | 1.05× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.65 | 6.1% | 3,741 | 3756.4 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $0.61 | 1.7% | 1,092 | 1126.9 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $0.59 | 2.4% | 1,640 | 1627.8 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.50 | 3.4% | 2,732 | 2754.7 | 0.99× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $0.38 | 2.3% | 2,439 | 2441.6 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.31 | 4.8% | 6,242 | 6260.6 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.25 | 2.2% | 3,464 | 3505.9 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.16 | 3.5% | 8,607 | 8764.8 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Marsh (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.13 | 2.1% | 7,579 | 6511.0 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.12 | 2.2% | 6,833 | 7512.7 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.08 | 2.3% | 11,148 | 11519.5 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-garter-9-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.06 | 1.4% | 10,815 | 9641.3 | 1.12× |
| [P90 \| Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-mustard-gas-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.05 | 0.8% | 9,263 | 6260.6 | 1.48× |
| [SSG 08 \| Green Ceramic (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-green-ceramic-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $0.04 | 1.2% | 8,079 | 12145.6 | 0.67× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.04 | 0.9% | 8,791 | 8764.8 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-acid-dart-field-tested) | 10.9% | $0.03 | 1.0% | 13,476 | 13648.1 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-leafhopper-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.02 | 0.6% | 12,692 | 12521.2 | 1.01× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/boreal-collection`, 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $0.35 $29.72 84.91x 2026-11-04 22:29 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $0.35 $29.68 84.80x 2026-11-04 20:01 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) [Waltuh](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Waltuh) $0.35 $29.68 84.80x 2026-11-04 19:24 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $0.35 $29.67 84.77x 2026-11-04 23:56 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) [Marcus.](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Marcus.) $0.35 $29.67 84.77x 2026-11-04 23:20 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) [polarwhite4](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/polarwhite4) $0.35 $29.62 84.63x 2026-11-06 01:53 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) Hidden $0.35 $29.61 84.60x 2026-11-04 12:44 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) [SUPERMAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/SUPERMAN) $0.35 $29.61 84.60x 2026-11-04 07:15 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) [vkolarikk](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/vkolarikk) $0.35 $29.61 84.60x 2026-11-04 06:51 UTC

[AWP | Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) [DaKingOfHash](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/DaKingOfHash) $0.35 $29.61 84.60x 2026-11-04 05:00 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=boreal-collection)

[P90 | Mustard Gas (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-mustard-gas-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.35 $0.05 0.14x 2026-11-12 10:06 UTC

[MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-field-tested) Hidden $0.35 $0.08 0.23x 2026-11-12 10:06 UTC

[SSG 08 | Green Ceramic (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-green-ceramic-factory-new) Hidden $0.35 $0.04 0.11x 2026-11-12 10:06 UTC

[MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-factory-new) [-=JoKeR=-♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/-%3DJoKeR%3D-%E2%99%9B) $0.35 $0.38 1.09x 2026-11-12 10:06 UTC

[AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) [STM](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/STM) $0.35 $1.39 3.97x 2026-11-12 10:05 UTC

[SSG 08 | Green Ceramic (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-green-ceramic-factory-new) [MaKo](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/MaKo) $0.35 $0.04 0.11x 2026-11-12 10:03 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-field-tested) [Bulk Bogan](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Bulk%20Bogan) $0.35 $0.04 0.11x 2026-11-12 10:03 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) [mkx.](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/mkx.) $0.35 $2.94 8.40x 2026-11-12 10:03 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) [Sticky](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Sticky) $0.35 $1.09 3.11x 2026-11-12 10:02 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) [Sticky](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Sticky) $0.35 $1.09 3.11x 2026-11-12 10:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC | $0.35 | 92.03% | 27 |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $0.35 | 92.28% | 27 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.35 | 91.94% | 27 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.35 | 91.32% | 27 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.35 | 91.48% | 27 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.35 | 91.56% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.35 | 91.64% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.35 | 91.61% | 27 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.35 | 91.28% | 27 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.35 | 92.53% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.35 | 91.38% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.35 | 91.21% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.35 | 91.35% | 27 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.35 | 91.58% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.35 | 92.22% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.35 | 92.43% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.35 | 92.47% | 27 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.35 | 93.10% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.35 | 93.37% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.35 | 92.04% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.35 | 91.22% | 27 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.35 | 92.05% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $0.35 | 92.20% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.35 | 92.67% | 27 |
| 4 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $0.35 | 92.27% | 27 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $0.35 | 91.94% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.8% #d32ce6 0.6% #8847ff 1.9% blue 1.2% uncommon 0.7% #4b69ff 5.9% Uncommon 33.0% Rare 12.4% #5e98d9 33.8% #b0c3d9 9.7% best hit $29.72 (84.91x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.03 on average: an expected loss of $7.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt