---
title: "Canon Event case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Canon Event ($12.09) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.48% from 21 items with odds, observed 92.10% over 40.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/canon-event
rendered: 2026-11-12T09:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Canon Event](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/canon-event)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Canon Event

A case on Skin.club (Bestseller Cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/canon-event?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/canon-event?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/canon-event) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/canon-event?window=all)

Price · $12.09

Advertised RTP · 92.48% · EV $11.18 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.10% · 40.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.98% ±3.80 5,328 openings

7 days · 92.26% ±1.69 30.2K openings

30 days · 92.10% ±1.46 40.7K openings

since tracking started · 92.10% ±1.46 40.7K openings

90.0% 94.8% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/canon-event?window=24h) | 5,328 | 94.98% ±3.80 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/canon-event?window=7d) | 30.2K | 92.26% ±1.69 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/canon-event) | 40.7K | 92.10% ±1.46 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/canon-event?window=all) | 40.7K | 92.10% ±1.46 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 20,000 | $380 | 0.2% | 10 | 2.0 | 4.90× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Immortal · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 16,667 | $344 | 0.2% | 14 | 2.5 | 5.71× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,500 | $344 | 0.2% | 10 | 3.3 | 3.06× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $252 | 0.3% | 38 | 5.3 | 7.15× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,846 | $211 | 0.5% | 17 | 10.6 | 1.60× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,564 | $174 | 0.6% | 40 | 15.9 | 2.51× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 662 | $105 | 1.4% | 841 | 61.7 | 13.63× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 211 | $92.62 | 3.9% | 240 | 193.7 | 1.24× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $50.97 | 9.1% | 597 | 817.1 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $45.58 | 11.4% | 1,846 | 1144.0 | 1.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $41.76 | 13.8% | 1,763 | 1511.7 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $36.59 | 12.1% | 1,981 | 1511.7 | 1.31× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $27.28 | 9.5% | 1,961 | 1593.4 | 1.23× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $21.08 | 9.2% | 2,354 | 2002.0 | 1.18× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $19.83 | 8.7% | 2,377 | 2002.0 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $13.41 | 6.0% | 2,333 | 2042.9 | 1.14× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 10.8% | $3.81 | 3.7% | 4,425 | 4412.6 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $3.39 | 3.6% | 4,358 | 4902.8 | 0.89× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) | 13.5% | $2.80 | 3.4% | 5,003 | 5515.7 | 0.91× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 14.7% | $1.04 | 1.4% | 5,303 | 6006.0 | 0.88× |
| [Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-factory-new) | 17.4% | $0.45 | 0.7% | 5,346 | 7100.1 | 0.75× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/canon-event`, 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=canon-event)

[Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-factory-new) Hidden $12.07 $0.46 0.04x 2026-11-12 09:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [Máx1m0](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/M%C3%A1x1m0) $12.07 $3.80 0.31x 2026-11-12 09:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) Hidden $12.07 $1.04 0.09x 2026-11-12 09:28 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-field-tested) Hidden $12.07 $2.80 0.23x 2026-11-12 09:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) [Máx1m0](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/M%C3%A1x1m0) $12.07 $27.25 2.26x 2026-11-12 09:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) Hidden $12.07 $1.04 0.09x 2026-11-12 09:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [Máx1m0](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/M%C3%A1x1m0) $12.07 $3.80 0.31x 2026-11-12 09:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.07 $27.25 2.26x 2026-11-12 09:28 UTC

[Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.07 $21.28 1.76x 2026-11-12 09:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) Hidden $12.07 $13.50 1.12x 2026-11-12 09:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 08:56 UTC | $12.09 | 92.48% | 21 |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $12.07 | 92.48% | 21 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $12.09 | 92.47% | 21 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $12.02 | 92.50% | 21 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $12.00 | 92.50% | 21 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $16.65 | 92.51% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $16.62 | 92.50% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $16.62 | 92.48% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $16.64 | 92.51% | 21 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $16.69 | 92.51% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $16.68 | 92.49% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $16.73 | 92.50% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $18.21 | 92.48% | 21 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $18.23 | 92.51% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $18.25 | 92.48% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $18.25 | 92.52% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $18.22 | 92.52% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $18.07 | 92.49% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $18.16 | 92.48% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $18.13 | 92.49% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $18.15 | 92.48% | 21 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $17.94 | 92.50% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $18.04 | 92.51% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $17.96 | 92.48% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $18.01 | 92.49% | 21 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $17.92 | 92.48% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $17.97 | 92.51% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $17.86 | 92.52% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $17.81 | 92.52% | 21 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $17.86 | 92.49% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Immortal 0.0% covert 8.7% classified 8.6% gold 0.5% restricted 3.9% Legendary 46.2% Mythical 14.7% Rare 17.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.48 on average: an expected loss of $7.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt