--- title: "15% M4A4 case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "15% M4A4 ($0.86) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.47% over 883 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-44d55e0d7 rendered: 2026-11-12T09:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [15% M4A4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-44d55e0d7) # [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · 15% M4A4 A case on Skin.club, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-44d55e0d7?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-44d55e0d7?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-44d55e0d7) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-44d55e0d7?window=all) Price · $0.86 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.47% · 883 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 80 openings · below min 7 days · 572 openings · below min 30 days · 883 openings · below min since tracking started · 883 openings · below min 13.0% 69.2% 125.5% **Small sample.** 883 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-44d55e0d7?window=24h) | 80 | 49.28% ±35.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-44d55e0d7?window=7d) | 572 | 81.26% ±38.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-44d55e0d7) | 883 | 92.47% ±32.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-44d55e0d7?window=all) | 883 | 92.47% ±32.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Skin.club publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.87 $69.00 79.31x 2026-11-08 10:35 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.85 $49.61 58.36x 2026-11-05 07:48 UTC [M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.85 $49.61 58.36x 2026-11-05 07:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=cc-44d55e0d7) [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Shark White) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-shark-white) Hidden $0.85 $0.05 0.06x 2026-11-12 07:16 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Shark White) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-shark-white) [GALLIPOLI](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/GALLIPOLI) $0.85 $0.05 0.06x 2026-11-12 07:16 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-etch-lord-field-tested) Hidden $0.85 $0.84 0.99x 2026-11-12 07:16 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Shark White) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-shark-white) [Marlen](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Marlen) $0.85 $0.05 0.06x 2026-11-12 07:16 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Shark White) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-shark-white) Hidden $0.85 $0.05 0.06x 2026-11-12 07:16 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Shark White) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-shark-white) [GALLIPOLI](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/GALLIPOLI) $0.85 $0.05 0.06x 2026-11-12 07:16 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Shark White) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-shark-white) Hidden $0.85 $0.05 0.06x 2026-11-12 07:16 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Poly Mag (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) [Marlen](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Marlen) $0.85 $1.82 2.14x 2026-11-12 07:16 UTC [M4A4 | Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.85 $9.83 11.56x 2026-11-12 07:16 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Death Sentence (Shark White) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-death-sentence-shark-white) [GALLIPOLI](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/GALLIPOLI) $0.85 $0.05 0.06x 2026-11-12 07:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $69.00 (79.31x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.47 on average: an expected loss of $7.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt