--- title: "5% NGOOS'S M4 case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% NGOOS'S M4 ($1.59) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 99.54% over 3,008 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-5fb8a8dcc rendered: 2026-11-11T23:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [5% NGOOS'S M4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-5fb8a8dcc) # [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · 5% NGOOS'S M4 A case on Skin.club, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-5fb8a8dcc?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-5fb8a8dcc?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-5fb8a8dcc) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-5fb8a8dcc?window=all) Price · $1.59 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 99.54% · 3,008 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 161 openings · below min 7 days · 105.73% ±30.77 1,560 openings 30 days · 99.54% ±21.29 3,008 openings since tracking started · 99.54% ±21.29 3,008 openings 22.0% 99.8% 177.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-5fb8a8dcc?window=24h) | 161 | 99.72% ±77.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-5fb8a8dcc?window=7d) | 1,560 | 105.73% ±30.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-5fb8a8dcc) | 3,008 | 99.54% ±21.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/cc-5fb8a8dcc?window=all) | 3,008 | 99.54% ±21.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Skin.club publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) [BT JENKS](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/BT%20JENKS) $1.63 $118 72.33x 2026-11-09 04:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $1.61 $117 72.93x 2026-11-08 19:50 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $1.60 $117 73.26x 2026-11-06 15:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $1.61 $116 72.09x 2026-11-07 22:02 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $1.61 $116 72.09x 2026-11-07 21:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $1.61 $116 72.09x 2026-11-07 21:31 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) [milfhunter](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/milfhunter) $1.62 $116 71.43x 2026-11-10 03:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $1.65 $115 69.88x 2026-11-04 07:29 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $1.58 $114 72.20x 2026-11-03 10:47 UTC [M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $1.59 $114 71.73x 2026-11-02 23:35 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=cc-5fb8a8dcc) [M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.59 $0.13 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.59 $0.13 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.59 $0.13 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) [Carlooscubeero](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Carlooscubeero) $1.59 $6.75 4.25x 2026-11-11 21:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.59 $0.13 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.59 $0.13 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.59 $0.13 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-battle-scarred) [Carlooscubeero](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Carlooscubeero) $1.59 $0.13 0.08x 2026-11-11 21:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.59 $0.13 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Wash me plz (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-wash-me-plz-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.59 $0.13 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $118 (72.33x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 99.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $99.54 on average: an expected loss of $0.46 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt