---
title: "Covert Battle case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Covert Battle ($41.35) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.51% from 25 items with odds, observed 92.75% over 29.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/covert-battle
rendered: 2026-11-12T07:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Covert Battle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/covert-battle)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Covert Battle

A case on Skin.club (Battle cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/covert-battle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/covert-battle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/covert-battle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/covert-battle?window=all)

Price · $41.35

Advertised RTP · 92.51% · EV $38.25 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.75% · 29.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 53.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.52% ±1.71 2,605 openings

7 days · 92.84% ±0.62 20.5K openings

30 days · 92.75% ±0.51 29.8K openings

since tracking started · 92.75% ±0.51 29.8K openings

90.0% 92.5% 95.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/covert-battle?window=24h) | 2,605 | 92.52% ±1.71 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/covert-battle?window=7d) | 20.5K | 92.84% ±0.62 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/covert-battle) | 29.8K | 92.75% ±0.51 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/covert-battle?window=all) | 29.8K | 92.75% ±0.51 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $356 | 0.9% | 43 | 29.8 | 1.44× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $257 | 0.8% | 35 | 35.8 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 357 | $149 | 1.1% | 74 | 83.5 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $121 | 1.3% | 128 | 119.3 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $105 | 1.1% | 104 | 119.3 | 0.87× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $92.77 | 1.0% | 128 | 119.3 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $86.27 | 0.9% | 128 | 119.3 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $71.47 | 0.7% | 155 | 119.3 | 1.30× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $69.15 | 0.7% | 128 | 119.3 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $68.62 | 0.9% | 150 | 149.1 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $67.28 | 1.1% | 144 | 179.0 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $58.95 | 0.9% | 126 | 179.0 | 0.70× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $56.23 | 0.9% | 181 | 179.0 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $55.26 | 0.9% | 1,113 | 179.0 | 6.22× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 167 | $54.46 | 0.9% | 188 | 179.0 | 1.05× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $54.00 | 1.4% | 178 | 298.3 | 0.60× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $53.92 | 0.8% | 425 | 179.0 | 2.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $53.00 | 6.9% | 415 | 1491.3 | 0.28× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $43.11 | 6.8% | 1,829 | 1789.6 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $42.11 | 6.6% | 1,788 | 1789.6 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 14.0% | $36.01 | 13.2% | 4,185 | 4175.6 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 14.0% | $33.74 | 12.3% | 4,347 | 4175.6 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 15.0% | $32.37 | 12.7% | 4,323 | 4473.9 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 16.0% | $31.19 | 13.0% | 4,730 | 4772.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 16.0% | $29.09 | 12.2% | 4,781 | 4772.2 | 1.00× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/covert_battle`, 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=covert-battle)

[AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $41.36 $43.02 1.04x 2026-11-12 07:11 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.36 $29.19 0.71x 2026-11-12 07:11 UTC

[StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) [Za3tar](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Za3tar) $41.36 $68.21 1.65x 2026-11-12 07:11 UTC

[AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $41.36 $42.21 1.02x 2026-11-12 07:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) Hidden $41.36 $53.49 1.29x 2026-11-12 07:11 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.36 $29.19 0.71x 2026-11-12 07:11 UTC

[M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) [Za3tar](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Za3tar) $41.36 $32.41 0.78x 2026-11-12 07:11 UTC

[M4A4 | Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.36 $29.19 0.71x 2026-11-12 07:11 UTC

[AK-47 | Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) Hidden $41.36 $31.14 0.75x 2026-11-12 07:10 UTC

[AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $41.36 $43.02 1.04x 2026-11-12 07:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 12 Nov, 02:51 UTC | $41.35 | 92.51% | 25 |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $41.17 | 92.51% | 25 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $41.11 | 92.50% | 25 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $41.18 | 92.50% | 25 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $41.21 | 92.50% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $41.12 | 92.49% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $41.08 | 92.50% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $41.27 | 92.49% | 25 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $41.31 | 92.50% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $41.09 | 92.50% | 25 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $41.28 | 92.51% | 25 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $42.01 | 92.49% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 32.2% Ancient 66.8% red 1.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.51 on average: an expected loss of $7.49 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt