---
title: "Dream case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dream ($1.97) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.31% from 14 items with odds, observed 91.26% over 14.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/dream
rendered: 2026-11-12T01:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/dream)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Dream

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/dream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/dream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/dream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/dream?window=all)

Price · $1.97

Advertised RTP · 92.31% · EV $1.82 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.26% · 14.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 11.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99.43% ±20.55 1,063 openings

7 days · 90.16% ±6.39 11.1K openings

30 days · 91.26% ±5.69 14.2K openings

since tracking started · 91.26% ±5.69 14.2K openings

78.0% 99.3% 120.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/dream?window=24h) | 1,063 | 99.43% ±20.6 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/dream?window=7d) | 11.1K | 90.16% ±6.39 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/dream) | 14.2K | 91.26% ±5.69 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/dream?window=all) | 14.2K | 91.26% ±5.69 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $122 | 16.8% | 31 | 35.6 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $44.14 | 8.5% | 53 | 49.8 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $7.57 | 16.7% | 592 | 568.8 | 1.04× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $4.20 | 9.7% | 565 | 597.3 | 0.95× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.00 | 5.7% | 873 | 739.5 | 1.18× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1.74 | 5.7% | 833 | 853.3 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.43 | 4.7% | 784 | 853.3 | 0.92× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.14 | 5.0% | 1,271 | 1137.7 | 1.12× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.96 | 5.3% | 1,384 | 1422.1 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.92 | 5.1% | 1,214 | 1422.1 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.84 | 4.6% | 1,592 | 1422.1 | 1.12× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.64 | 3.9% | 1,478 | 1564.3 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-battle-scarred) | 13.0% | $0.62 | 4.4% | 1,739 | 1848.7 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) | 12.0% | $0.59 | 3.9% | 1,812 | 1706.5 | 1.06× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/dream`, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Medieval](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Medieval) $1.93 $126 65.32x 2026-11-02 23:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [冶圓辛支柱](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%E5%86%B6%E5%9C%93%E8%BE%9B%E6%94%AF%E6%9F%B1) $1.92 $126 65.66x 2026-11-02 23:44 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [CrnoJaje](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/CrnoJaje) $1.92 $126 65.60x 2026-11-04 01:16 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Sleek Tempest](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Sleek%20Tempest) $1.92 $125 65.29x 2026-11-03 04:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Sleek Tempest](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Sleek%20Tempest) $1.92 $125 65.29x 2026-11-03 04:20 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.92 $125 65.29x 2026-11-03 04:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.92 $125 65.29x 2026-11-03 04:14 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [stonie EZ money](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/stonie%20EZ%20%20money) $1.92 $125 65.16x 2026-11-03 18:45 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.92 $125 65.14x 2026-11-04 12:31 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [sLdr](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/sLdr) $1.92 $125 65.13x 2026-11-03 20:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=dream)

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.00 $0.63 0.32x 2026-11-12 01:22 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-field-tested) Hidden $2.00 $1.15 0.58x 2026-11-12 01:22 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) Hidden $2.00 $0.63 0.32x 2026-11-12 01:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [fzero](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/fzero) $2.00 $0.83 0.42x 2026-11-12 01:22 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.00 $1.43 0.72x 2026-11-12 01:19 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) Hidden $2.00 $0.64 0.32x 2026-11-12 01:19 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.00 $0.95 0.48x 2026-11-12 01:19 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [fzero](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/fzero) $2.00 $0.83 0.42x 2026-11-12 01:19 UTC

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $2.00 $0.95 0.48x 2026-11-12 01:17 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-battle-scarred) Hidden $2.00 $0.63 0.32x 2026-11-12 01:17 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $1.97 | 92.31% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $1.94 | 92.66% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $1.94 | 92.44% | 14 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $1.95 | 92.47% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $1.93 | 92.30% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $1.93 | 92.36% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $1.93 | 92.68% | 14 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $1.94 | 92.27% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $1.93 | 92.50% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $1.94 | 92.40% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $1.95 | 92.29% | 14 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $1.95 | 92.53% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $1.95 | 92.61% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $1.96 | 92.68% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $1.96 | 92.60% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $1.96 | 92.28% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $1.96 | 92.44% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $1.96 | 92.27% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $1.95 | 92.57% | 14 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $1.94 | 92.35% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $1.94 | 92.65% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $1.95 | 92.47% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $1.96 | 92.38% | 14 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.95 | 92.71% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1.96 | 92.57% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1.94 | 92.59% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $1.93 | 92.44% | 14 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $1.92 | 92.42% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $1.91 | 92.63% | 14 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.91 | 92.55% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% restricted 19.4% mil spec 50.0% #8847ff 18.0% Rare 12.0% best hit $126 (65.32x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.31 on average: an expected loss of $7.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt