---
title: "Farm M4 case on Skin.club: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Farm M4 ($0.75) on Skin.club, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.49% from 13 items with odds, observed 88.06% over 198K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/easy-m4
rendered: 2026-11-12T01:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) / [Farm M4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/easy-m4)

# [Skin.club](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/skinclub) · Farm M4

A case on Skin.club (Farm cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/easy-m4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/easy-m4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/easy-m4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/easy-m4?window=all)

Price · $0.75

Advertised RTP · 92.49% · EV $0.69 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.06% · 198K openings, odds method

Variance · 1268.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 345 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 99.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 112.80% ±51.00 19K openings

7 days · 86.91% ±18.64 148K openings

30 days · 88.06% ±16.40 198K openings

since tracking started · 88.06% ±16.40 198K openings

61.0% 112.8% 164.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/easy-m4?window=24h) | 19K | 112.80% ±51.0 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/easy-m4?window=7d) | 148K | 86.91% ±18.6 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/easy-m4) | 198K | 88.06% ±16.4 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/skinclub/easy-m4?window=all) | 198K | 88.06% ±16.4 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 198K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $5,827 | 16.8% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,348 | $122 | 4.1% | 57 | 45.5 | 1.25× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $121 | 6.1% | 89 | 69.3 | 1.28× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $102 | 7.4% | 97 | 99.0 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $85.15 | 7.4% | 116 | 118.8 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $73.46 | 6.4% | 87 | 118.8 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,667 | $70.63 | 6.1% | 125 | 118.8 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $65.92 | 6.7% | 229 | 138.6 | 1.65× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $63.25 | 7.3% | 108 | 158.4 | 0.68× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $58.93 | 8.5% | 216 | 198.0 | 1.09× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $23.47 | 4.1% | 178 | 237.6 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-factory-new) | 1 in 417 | $10.52 | 3.6% | 502 | 475.3 | 1.06× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Sorry (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-sorry-war-pig-pink) | 99.1% | $0.11 | 15.7% | 196,223 | 196247.7 | 1.00× |

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `skinclub:apiv2/cases/easy_m4`, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Mister Fister](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Mister%20Fister) $0.68 $6,013 8,843x 2026-11-05 14:31 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.68 $5,985 8,801x 2026-11-04 17:44 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Trleeee](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Trleeee) $0.75 $5,843 7,791x 2026-11-12 00:31 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.75 $5,843 7,791x 2026-11-12 00:30 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [悲伤猪头肉](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/%E6%82%B2%E4%BC%A4%E7%8C%AA%E5%A4%B4%E8%82%89) $0.72 $5,799 8,055x 2026-11-10 06:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Rapid](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Rapid) $0.74 $5,799 7,837x 2026-11-10 06:27 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Zabuza](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Zabuza) $0.76 $5,657 7,444x 2026-11-09 03:12 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.68 $126 185.5x 2026-11-04 08:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.68 $126 185.5x 2026-11-04 07:33 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) [Phồng Tôm](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/Ph%E1%BB%93ng%20T%C3%B4m) $0.68 $126 185.5x 2026-11-04 07:25 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=skinclub&case=easy-m4)

[Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-sorry-war-pig-pink) Hidden $0.75 $0.11 0.15x 2026-11-12 01:50 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-sorry-war-pig-pink) Hidden $0.75 $0.11 0.15x 2026-11-12 01:50 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-sorry-war-pig-pink) [pttype](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/pttype) $0.75 $0.11 0.15x 2026-11-12 01:50 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-sorry-war-pig-pink) Hidden $0.75 $0.11 0.15x 2026-11-12 01:50 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-sorry-war-pig-pink) Hidden $0.75 $0.11 0.15x 2026-11-12 01:50 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-sorry-war-pig-pink) [pttype](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/pttype) $0.75 $0.11 0.15x 2026-11-12 01:50 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-sorry-war-pig-pink) Hidden $0.75 $0.11 0.15x 2026-11-12 01:50 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-sorry-war-pig-pink) Hidden $0.75 $0.11 0.15x 2026-11-12 01:50 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-sorry-war-pig-pink) [pttype](https://gambatracker.com/players/skinclub/pttype) $0.75 $0.11 0.15x 2026-11-12 01:50 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Sorry (War Pig Pink) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-sorry-war-pig-pink) Hidden $0.75 $0.11 0.15x 2026-11-12 01:46 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $0.75 | 92.49% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $0.75 | 92.34% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $0.75 | 92.39% | 13 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $0.75 | 92.16% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.73 | 93.05% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $0.73 | 92.96% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $0.74 | 92.04% | 13 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $0.73 | 91.90% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $0.72 | 93.00% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $0.73 | 92.11% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $0.76 | 92.27% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $0.76 | 92.63% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $0.76 | 92.69% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $0.77 | 91.93% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $0.77 | 92.66% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $0.77 | 92.59% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $0.78 | 91.94% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $0.77 | 92.56% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $0.77 | 92.88% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $0.70 | 92.45% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $0.74 | 92.57% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $0.75 | 92.68% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $0.75 | 92.31% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.74 | 92.67% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.74 | 92.44% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $0.68 | 92.70% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $0.68 | 92.87% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $0.68 | 93.05% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $0.69 | 91.93% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.68 | 92.59% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% covert 0.3% classified 0.1% rare 0.1% red 0.1% pink 0.1% Legendary 0.2% Common 99.1% best hit $6,013 (8,843x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.49 on average: an expected loss of $7.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt